MH+ Ep.31 Dark Side of The Moon (guest: Vincent Deluard)
Mar 19, 2024
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Vincent Deluard joins for a market discussion covering FED, inflation, and deflation outlook. Explore correlations in quadrant investing and economic regimes, factors in Trump's re-election, rising service sector wages, impact of inflation on stocks, and investment strategies.
Vincent Deluard discusses quadrant investing strategy for different economic regimes and suitable asset classes.
The podcast explores Federal Reserve's challenges in raising rates, potential impact on bond market, and stock valuations.
Deep dives
Vincent de Loile's Quadrant Investing Strategy
Vincent de Loile discusses his quadrant investing strategy which divides economic regimes based on growth and inflation levels. He highlights different asset classes suitable for each quadrant, such as tech stocks for disinflationary growth and gold for stagflation.
Impact of Demographics on Labor Markets
The discussion delves into how demographic shifts impact labor markets, particularly in the context of structural deficits and labor force changes. With baby boomers exiting and Gen Z entering the workforce, there is a noticeable shift in labor market dynamics affecting unemployment rates.
Federal Reserve's Approach to Monetary Policy
The podcast explores the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy, focusing on the challenges of raising rates in an environment of potential inflation. Insights are shared on the Fed's communication strategies and potential scenarios where rate hikes may be necessary.
Long-End Bond Market Concerns and Stock Market Implications
The conversation shifts to concerns about the long-end bond market, with discussions on potential scenarios where the bond market could face challenges. The impact of yield curve signals on stock market performance is analyzed, considering scenarios of rising rates and their implications on stock valuations.
On this weeks Huddle +, Kevin welcomes back to the show, Macro Strategist for StoneX Group, Vincent Deluard. Kev and Vincent have a great discussion about the markets, the FED and the overall outlook on inflation and deflation.