Marketplace Our economic future is a black box
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Oct 8, 2025 In this conversation, Alex Shuford, the third-generation CEO of Rock House Designer Brands and Century Furniture, candidly discusses the upheaval in U.S. furniture manufacturing due to tariffs. He reveals how recent policy shifts have created chaos in budgeting and disrupted growth plans for family-run businesses. Shuford highlights the mixed effects of tariffs—offering a short-term boost for domestic production while also risking long-term viability and profit margins. Lastly, he addresses how uncertainty complicates future planning in a shifting economic landscape.
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Forecasting In A Policy Shock
- The Trump administration's policy changes have removed many historical precedents economists rely on.
- Forecasters are pressure-testing assumptions more intensely and revising outlooks frequently.
Partial Precedents, Big Unknowns
- Economists can use past tariff and immigration episodes as partial guides but limits remain.
- That pushes forecasters to rely more on sector-level signals and qualitative judgment.
Stress-Test Forecast Assumptions
- Pressure-test every key assumption in your economic forecast with alternative scenarios.
- Maintain readiness to revise views as new data or policy moves emerge.