Astral Codex Ten Podcast
Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest
Feb 10, 2025
Excitement brews as the new forecasting contest kicks off for 2025. Participants can dive into making predictions on hot topics like US politics and AI. With a tempting prize pool of $10,000, the stakes are high! The importance of submitting forecasts by January 31st is emphasized, ensuring ample time for events to unfold. This contest promises a thrilling blend of competition and insight.
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Quick takeaways
- The 2025 ACX Metaculus Forecasting Contest features a significantly increased prize pool of $10,000 and encourages submissions on various impactful topics.
- New forecasting bots are being introduced this year to assess their performance against established forecasters, enhancing competition and engagement in the contest.
Deep dives
Announcement of the 2025 ACX Metaculous Forecasting Contest
The 2025 ACX Metaculous Forecasting Contest has been officially announced, featuring an increased prize pool of $10,000 compared to the previous year's $2,500. Participants are invited to submit their forecasts on a diverse range of topics, including U.S. politics, AI, and cultural developments, with submissions open until January 31st, 2025. This year, the contest aims to incorporate a comprehensive question set that balances rigor and broad interest, ensuring fairness in judging and engaging a wide audience. Noteworthy examples of questions include predictions about U.S. federal interest rates and the possibility of AI interfaces being utilized by U.S. presidents for services like Starbucks delivery.
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