The DC Today - Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bqijHA

Markets traded modestly higher following global markets, particularly China, where broad indices closed higher by over 3%. Markets in China have given up over $7T in market value since peaking in March of 2021, and last night’s move had less to do with actual news than I think it just did with an oversold bounce on potential stimulus. I do suspect there will be more from the government there to stimulate the economy and a severely over-levered real estate market sooner rather than later.

Slower growth in China, means less Yuan to recycle back in US Treasuries, as that share of ownership continues to decline. There are still plenty of long-dated liabilities that need to be funded domestically with pensions and insurance companies and the like, but the supply this year will be massive with $8.9T in maturing Treasuries. Add on another $1T or more in deficits, and we will need to see over $10T absorbed in markets this year. This, along with the fact that government interest payments have already doubled from $350B in 2021 to now $700B, just has me skeptical that the Fed will continue to sell $60B a month with QT for a whole lot longer.

It was less of a data-driven market day, other than a host of Fed President comments, which I will sum up to effectively ‘…yeah, what he said…’ reiterating Powell’s Fed policy comments last week about more time needed with rates.

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