This podcast discusses the US Supreme Court case on wealth tax, the ongoing debate on interest rate cuts, and the crackdown on Ukraine's oligarchs. It explores the potential impact of the tax case and the implications for fiscal plans. The episode also delves into how Ukraine's oligarchs gained and lost their power, and the efforts to diminish their influence through anti-corruption measures.
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Quick takeaways
Economists predict the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts until July 2024, while investors expect cuts to start in March, reflecting uncertainty in the central bank's decision-making process.
Ukraine's crackdown on oligarchs is crucial for gaining Western support and achieving the country's ambitions of EU and NATO membership, although the wealthy and influential oligarchs may not be completely eliminated.
Deep dives
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts: Economist and Investor Disagreements
Economists and Wall Street have differing opinions on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. Leading economists expect the central bank to hold off until July of next year, whereas investors believe rate cuts will begin in March. The Fed's decision is uncertain, but with falling inflation and stagnant job growth, the central bank must grapple with determining how long to keep rates elevated.
Supreme Court Case Challenges Wealth Tax: Implications for Taxing Unrealized Gains
The US Supreme Court heard a crucial tax case that could affect Democrat's attempt to impose a wealth tax. The case involves a couple, Charles and Kathleen Moore, who challenged a one-off tax on offshore profits. The decision could have far-reaching consequences as it questions the government's ability to tax unrealized gains and challenges the definition of income. The outcome may impact President Biden's wealth tax plan, which aims to raise revenue by taxing those with a net worth over $100 million.
Ukraine Cracks Down on Oligarchs: Losing Influence and Power
Ukraine's oligarchs, who once dominated the country's economy in sectors such as energy and commodities, are facing losses in wealth and influence. The Russian invasion in 2014 started their decline, and their fortunes further deteriorated as Ukraine launched an anti-corruption campaign under President Zelensky. The government's efforts to clamp down on corruption are essential for Western support and are linked to Ukraine's aspirations of joining the EU and NATO. Although the oligarchs are down, they remain wealthy and influential, making it uncertain whether they will disappear completely.
Leading economists say the Federal Reserve will hold off on interest rate cuts until at least July 2024, and the US Supreme Court heard a case that could shut down Democrats’ attempts to impose a wealth tax. Plus, the FT’s Europe editor, Ben Hall, explains why Ukraine is cracking down on oligarchs and what it means for the country.
The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help by Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Monica Lopez. Topher Forhecz is the FT’s executive producer. The FT’s global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show’s theme song is by Metaphor Music.