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The Ultimate Macro Framework with Raoul Pal (WiM078)

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Nov 23, 2021

02:22:45

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INSIGHT

Wars, Empires And Currency Debasement

The collapse of empires and wars set off long-run monetary and political cascades that reshape global systems.
Currency debasement after big wars created economic collapse and unexpected political outcomes like the rise of extremism.

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ANECDOTE

How Pax Americana Built The Golden Age

Raoul recounts how Bretton Woods and postwar institutions created a rules‑based Pax Americana that enabled the golden age.
He attributes the 1950s–60s boom to stimulus, Marshall Plan rebuilding, and wartime tech converted to consumer goods.

insights

INSIGHT

Baby Boomers Created A Historic Demand Shock

The post‑WWII baby boom and fiscal stimulus produced the largest demand shock in history and a golden age of rising real wages.
That demographic bulge later created inflationary pressure and structural strains as it entered the labour market.

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The Greatest Unintended Consequences of All Time

The Boom of the 19 Sixties

10:24 • 3min

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What's the Difference Between America and the British Empire?

The Biggest Problem Is That Wages Don't Go Up Again

18:33 • 5min

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Politics Is Downstream of Economics, Almost Always

23:25 • 4min

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What's the Solution to Wall Street?

27:02 • 4min

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Fei Currency Debasement

31:08 • 4min

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Free Market Capitalists Are in Uproar

35:07 • 2min

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You Have No Understanding What You Are About to Do to Your Own Populace

37:16 • 2min

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Nitig - Your Single Source Solution for Everything Bit Coin

39:02 • 2min

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The Global Reserve Currency With the Biggest Power of Us

40:52 • 3min

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Emerging Markets - You Own the Cariqancy

44:14 • 2min

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The Growth Economy, Wall Street, and Wall Street.

45:45 • 3min

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Is This Going to Be the End?

48:51 • 2min

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Why Is Labor Force Participation Rate Falling?

51:18 • 4min

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Is the Fed Doing a Papering in the Craps of the Demographics?

55:34 • 2min

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Is the Death Birth Ratio a Predictor of the Central Bank Balance Sheet?

57:28 • 3min

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The Fed Balance Sheet Is a Function of Demographics

01:00:20 • 3min

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The End of the Debt Crisis

01:03:47 • 5min

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What Is Going to Happen in Politics?

01:08:47 • 4min

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The Fed Crossed the Rubecon - Corpora Bonds

Bonds Are Not Rational, They're Rational

01:21:42 • 3min

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The Millennials Can't Generate Wealth

01:24:12 • 4min

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The Future of Everything

01:28:01 • 4min

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Block Chain Changed That

01:32:24 • 2min

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The Rise of Cryptocurrency

01:34:10 • 5min

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The Austrian Approach Is, Let It All Fucking Burn

01:38:52 • 1min

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The Austrian World View Can't Prevale Right Now

01:40:21 • 2min

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Is There an Incentive Embeding This for Population Reduction?

01:41:53 • 5min

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The Real World Is Not One Place, Is It?

01:46:32 • 3min

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The Progressive Left Is Going to Be Hard to Beat

The Digital World Is Just Throwing Water Over It

01:55:27 • 2min

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Investing in Cryptocurrency?

01:57:08 • 2min

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The Other Thing That I'm Thinking Through

01:59:01 • 2min

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Is Electricity Going to Zero?

02:00:33 • 2min

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The Problem Is, Do You Have Free Energy?

02:02:23 • 2min

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The Utopian, Distopian Dil

Is There a State Idea?

The Possibility Spectrum Has Just Exploded

02:12:25 • 2min

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What Happens to Demographics?

02:14:12 • 2min

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Is Inovation Changing the Nature of Demographics?

02:15:46 • 2min

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We're Just Eating Money With Technology

02:17:35 • 2min

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You Can Vote, Do What You Want to or Not

02:19:25 • 2min

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Y Play the Hand That Is Handed

02:21:06 • 2min

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Raoul Pal joins for me a mind-blowing exploration of global financial history, the emergence of the exponential age, Bitcoin, the metaverse, and a look into the future of humanity.

Be sure to check out NYDIG, one of the most important companies in Bitcoin: https://nydig.com/

GUEST
Raoul's twitter: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
Raoul's company: https://www.realvision.com/

PODCAST
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Transcript:

OUTLINE
00:00:00 “What is Money?” Intro
00:00:08 “The Sun Never Sets on the British Empire”
00:06:22 The Weimar Hyperinflation
00:08:56 World War II and The Baby Boomers
00:13:29 Pax Americana and Rules-Based Global Order
00:17:00 The Largest Demand Shock Ever Seen
00:22:22 Economic Disparity Driving Political Polarization
00:25:28 Reagan, Thatcher, and Unintended Consequences
00:30:32 Financialization of the 1980s
00:34:46 Introduction of the WTO
00:39:45 NYDIG
00:40:53 The Dark Side of the “Exorbitant Privilege”
00:42:47 Central Bank Policy Tools and “Managing” the Business Cycle
00:44:34 The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
00:49:35 The 2001 Dotcom Crisis
00:50:51 Collapse in Labor Force Participation and Monetary Velocity
00:53:46 The 2008 Great Financial Crisis and QE Infinity
00:59:30 The Making of the Everything Bubble
01:04:20 The Rise of Digital, Populism, and Wealth Confiscation
01:09:54 The Fourth Turning and “The Pandemic”
01:15:47 Universal Underwriting by The Central Bank
01:19:14 The Unstoppable Truth of Demographics
01:25:39 Bitcoin and the Unreality of Currency Debasement
01:32:07 Lack of Segregation in Financial Instrument Property Rights
01:38:14 Possible Political Responses to the Impending Financial Crisis
01:41:25 Misaligned Incentives, Population Control, and The Exponential Age
01:44:54 Emergence of the Metaverse and Networked States
01:50:20 “The Game Is Not What You Want It To Be, The Game Is What It Is”
01:56:16 A World Running on Deflationary and Programmable Money
01:59:59 Digital Identity, “Capitalist UBI,” and Free Energy?
02:06:36 Where Does the Value Accrue in the Exponential Age?
02:13:27 The Possibility of Radical Life Extension
02:15:17 Change the Money, Change the World

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