Katy Balls chats with Kate Andrews, an economic analyst known for her sharp insights on fiscal policy, and Michael Gove, a veteran politician with a wealth of experience in government. They unpack Rachel Reeves' first Labour budget in 14 years, which includes a staggering £40 billion tax increase. Key discussions focus on the hike in National Insurance, changes to capital gains tax, and the freeze on income tax thresholds. The duo critiques whether these measures will truly stimulate growth and how public trust might be eroded amid these tough fiscal decisions.
Labour's first budget in 15 years includes a £40 billion tax increase, raising concerns about public trust amid rising taxation.
The budget's focus on public service funding over business growth strategies may hinder job creation and contradict Labour's labor market commitments.
Deep dives
The Impact of the First Labour Budget
The first Labour budget in 15 years, presented by Rachel Reeves, marked a significant moment for the government, though it lacked surprises. Key changes included an increase in employer national insurance to nearly 15% and a reduction in the threshold for payments, dropping from approximately £9,500 to about £5,000. Despite complaints about tax burdens, the budget was framed as necessary funding for public services, as it included measures like implementing VAT on private school fees and raising the windfall tax on energy companies. While these actions were expected, they raised questions about who truly controls the fiscal narrative, as the Labour government continued tax practices previously criticized when the Tories were in charge.
Challenges for Economic Growth
The Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR) analysis following the budget revealed concerns regarding economic growth projections, which were lower than anticipated for the latter half of the parliamentary term. While growth is expected to improve slightly in the short term, projections indicate that by 2029, it will stagnate around 1.5% to 1.6%. This signals a shift in Labour's economic strategy, suggesting that instead of prioritizing growth through business-friendly policies, the government is focusing on public service investments as a precursor to growth. Critics argue that this approach might hinder job creation, particularly for lower-paid roles, thus contradicting the government’s commitment to invigorate the labor market.
Political Risks and Trust Issues
The budget raises significant concerns about the Labour government's ability to maintain public trust amid rising taxes and stagnant growth projections. Many voters may doubt Labour's claims of improvement in public services, especially if tax hikes do not yield visible benefits in their lives. The government faces the challenge of addressing tax-related discontent while trying to reform the NHS and maintain necessary public expenditure. As public expectations remain high after past resets, confidence in Labour's long-term vision could wane if immediate improvements do not materialize, creating potential political vulnerabilities ahead of future elections.
Rachel Reeves has announced that taxes will rise by £40 billion in Labour’s first Budget for 14 years. The headlines include: an increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions from April to 15 per cent, raising £25 billion; that the freeze on income tax and National Insurance thresholds will not be extended past 2028; that the lower rate of capital gains tax will be raised from 10 per cent to 18 per cent, and the higher rate from 20 per cent to 24 per cent; that fuel duty will remain frozen for the next two years; and the introduction of VAT on private school fees from January.
The Chancellor didn’t want to surprise anyone with this Budget. She didn’t want to shock the markets, nor did she want any accusation that she had played fast and loose with the public finances. Still, that won’t make today’s fiscal event any less memorable – or painful. Will these measures lead to any meaningful growth?
Katy Balls speaks to Kate Andrews and Michael Gove.
Produced by Megan McElroy and Oscar Edmondson.
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