Weak Data Suggesting Economy is Rolling Over with Louis-Vincent Gave

Jun 12, 2024

Louis-Vincent Gave discusses global markets outlook, Chinese economy, Yen weakness, and more. Topics include inflation trends, Chinese Yuan depreciation, and factors impacting US recession indicators. Insights on central banks' rate cuts, commodity shifts, and aligning economic and market data for investment decisions.

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Intro

00:00 • 2min

Global Market Performance and Economic Outlook

01:41 • 12min

Analysis of Central Banks' Willingness to Cut Rates and Potential Market Impacts

13:35 • 3min

Inflation Trajectory and Economic Trends in China

17:02 • 19min

Evaluating Indicators for US Recession and Bullish Sentiment on Emerging Markets

35:43 • 2min

Analyzing Economic and Market Data for Investment Decisions

37:42 • 4min

Interview recorded - 12th of June, 2024

On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Louis-Vincent Gave.

During our conversation we spoke about Louis' outlook for global markets, why growth could remain strong with higher inflation, what this means for commodities, whether the Chinese economy has bottomed, Yen weakness and more. I hope you enjoy!

0:00 - Introduction
1:55 - Outlook on global markets?
4:32 - Pullback in emerging markets?
10:45 - Economic sentiment starting to change?
13:35 - FED cut on table?
15:01 - Markets increase when cut?
17:01 - Will inflation remain high?
19:23 - China bottom?
27:07 - China to be smarter with investment?
31:02- Chinese Yuan further depreciation?
33:17 - Yen to continue to be weak?
35:19 - What would change Louis perspective?
37:42 - One message to takeaway from conversation?

After receiving his bachelor's degree from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army where he served as a second lieutenant in a mountain infantry battalion. After a couple of years, Louis left the army and joined Paribas where he worked as a financial analyst—first in Paris, then in Hong Kong.

Louis left Paribas in 1998 to launch Gavekal with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky. The idea at the time was that Asia was set to become an ever more important factor in global growth, and that consequently Gavekal needed to offer its clients more information, and more ideas, relating to Asia.

Louis has written seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times which reviews how to build a portfolio at a time of rising geostrategic strife, and when very low interest rates and stretched valuations on most assets announce constrained returns on most assets over the next decade.

Louis speaks English and French. He spent many hours studying Mandarin and Spanish, which he once spoke decently. He is married with two sons and two daughters.

Louis-Vincent Gave:

Website - https://research.gavekal.com/
Twitter - https://x.com/gave_vincent

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