Weak Data Suggesting Economy is Rolling Over with Louis-Vincent Gave
Jun 12, 2024
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Louis-Vincent Gave discusses global markets outlook, Chinese economy, Yen weakness, and more. Topics include inflation trends, Chinese Yuan depreciation, and factors impacting US recession indicators. Insights on central banks' rate cuts, commodity shifts, and aligning economic and market data for investment decisions.
Rising costs impacting low-end consumers point to a potential economic slowdown in the US.
Global markets facing challenges due to recent economic data softening trends and shifts towards technology stocks.
Deep dives
US Economic Data Showing Softening Trends
Economic data in the US has been indicating a soft batch due to rising costs impacting the low-end consumer. Anecdotal evidence from companies like Starbucks, McDonald's, and Target supports the view of a potential economic slowdown in the US. Factors like increasing car insurance, home insurance, and other daily expenses are squeezing incomes, leading to concerns about a possible rollover in the US economy.
Global Market Outlook and Recent Economic Trends
Initially optimistic about global growth, concerns have arisen due to recent economic data softening trends. A shift towards technology stocks like Nvidia has impacted market dynamics, with economic indicators pointing to challenges in sectors like copper and energy. The potential US economic slowdown and increasing political risks globally contribute to market uncertainties.
Central Banks' Response and Impact on Market Cycles
Central banks globally, including the Fed, are leaning towards rate cuts to stimulate economic growth. While initial market reactions to rate cuts may be positive, sustained cuts could reflect underlying economic weaknesses. The focus on weakening US dollar post-rate cuts may benefit cyclicals and emerging markets, especially those with currencies pegged to the USD.
China's Economic Resilience and Industrial Advancements
China's economic resilience amidst a balance sheet recession and focus on industrial advancements are key global market dynamics. Shifts in global trade dynamics, including tariffs and competitive devaluations, impact economic landscapes. Observing China's strides in industries like automotive and market expansions in emerging economies indicates significant market shifts and opportunities.
On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming on Louis-Vincent Gave.
During our conversation we spoke about Louis' outlook for global markets, why growth could remain strong with higher inflation, what this means for commodities, whether the Chinese economy has bottomed, Yen weakness and more. I hope you enjoy!
0:00 - Introduction 1:55 - Outlook on global markets? 4:32 - Pullback in emerging markets? 10:45 - Economic sentiment starting to change? 13:35 - FED cut on table? 15:01 - Markets increase when cut? 17:01 - Will inflation remain high? 19:23 - China bottom? 27:07 - China to be smarter with investment? 31:02- Chinese Yuan further depreciation? 33:17 - Yen to continue to be weak? 35:19 - What would change Louis perspective? 37:42 - One message to takeaway from conversation?
After receiving his bachelor's degree from Duke University and studying Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis joined the French Army where he served as a second lieutenant in a mountain infantry battalion. After a couple of years, Louis left the army and joined Paribas where he worked as a financial analyst—first in Paris, then in Hong Kong.
Louis left Paribas in 1998 to launch Gavekal with his father Charles and Anatole Kaletsky. The idea at the time was that Asia was set to become an ever more important factor in global growth, and that consequently Gavekal needed to offer its clients more information, and more ideas, relating to Asia.
Louis has written seven books, the latest being Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times which reviews how to build a portfolio at a time of rising geostrategic strife, and when very low interest rates and stretched valuations on most assets announce constrained returns on most assets over the next decade.
Louis speaks English and French. He spent many hours studying Mandarin and Spanish, which he once spoke decently. He is married with two sons and two daughters.