Episode 458: Withdrawal Mechanics, Modelling, Futures Contracts And GOOOOLD, And Portfolio Reviews As Of October 17, 2025

Oct 19, 2025

This discussion dives into the mechanics of monthly withdrawals and the importance of rebalancing for smooth financial transitions. The team explores how to model portfolios that manage both contributions and withdrawals simultaneously. Gold's impressive performance is scrutinized, highlighting its role in enhancing portfolio diversification during market drawdowns. Additional insights include reviews of diverse sample portfolios, featuring strategies like the Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio, emphasizing their strong year-to-date results.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

ANECDOTE

Donor Using Portfolio For Regular Charity Gifts

Ron donates quarterly to the Father McKenna Center and reports his All Equity McKenna Man portfolio handled an 8% withdrawal well.
Frank notes donors get priority for email questions and thanks Ron for setting up a donation-sourced distribution.

ADVICE

Use Dividends As Your Withdrawal Buffer

Let dividends accumulate into a cash buffer and use that cash for monthly withdrawals instead of selling holdings each month.
Rebalance periodically (e.g., annually) to correct small timing errors and reduce transaction friction.

INSIGHT

Rebalancing Smooths Withdrawal Timing Noise

Regular rebalancing washes out timing errors from monthly withdrawals, making the exact sale date less critical.
Highly volatile holdings (e.g., leveraged ETFs, crypto) can still produce awkward monthly outcomes but rebalancing mitigates long-term impact.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In this episode we answer emails from Ron, Mark, Rick and Keith. We revel in your generosity and discuss the mechanics of monthly withdrawals and how rebalancing smooths that over, modelling portfolio with money going in and money going out, and a follow up on portfolios employing futures contracts as leverage. And gooooold!

And THEN we our go through our weekly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.

Additional Links:

Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna Center

Our South Africa Trip Video Playlist: Penguins in Cape Town

Remembering Gov. Schaefer: The Eastern Shore remembers Schaefer

Recent Bigger Pockets Money Episode Mentioning RP Portfolios: FIRE is Dead...and Here's What Replaced It

Portfolio Visualizer Financial Goals Tool: Financial Goals

Accumulating in a Golden Ratio Portfolio Article: Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio Charts

Keith's Portfolio Backtest: https://testfol.io/?s=9Am02OVX6XD

Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:

Gold doesn’t care about narratives, and this year it’s rewriting a lot of them. We walk through what a powerful gold run means for real-world withdrawals, safe withdrawal rates, and the way diversified portfolios shoulder risk when the regime shifts. From the Golden Butterfly and Golden Ratio to return-stacked experiments, we review performance, drawdowns, and why structural diversification—equities, Treasuries, gold, real assets, and managed futures—often beats clever timing when you’re spending from your nest egg.

We also open the donor mailbag with sharp questions from listeners practicing monthly withdrawals ahead of retirement. Should you fund withdrawals from accumulated cash or trim recent winners? How much does trade timing matter at month-end? We share simple rules that reduce friction: let dividends build a cash buffer, sell strength back to targets, and rely on periodic rebalancing to correct small timing errors. For those using volatile tools like UPRO, TMF, or crypto, we explain why defined targets and a steady cadence matter more than chasing the “perfect” price.

Futures curious? We touch on financing costs, collateral choices, and the risk realities of leverage, including why even elegant models must respect max drawdown. Along the way, we challenge the habit of erasing the 1970s from gold analysis and highlight how data-driven diversification can protect retirees from sequence risk. Whether you’re simulating withdrawals or already living on your portfolio, you’ll get practical tactics and a clearer lens for portfolio design.

If this resonates, follow the show, leave a review, and share it with someone planning their retirement drawdown. And if you want your question answered sooner, support the Father McKenna Center through our site—every donation helps and moves you to the front of the line.

Support the show