Marketplace Morning Report When the job market is a "complicated, unusual, difficult situation"
Dec 11, 2025
Nancy Marshall Genzer, a Marketplace reporter, discusses the possible overestimation of job growth, highlighting how changes in BLS modeling could affect data accuracy. Diane Swank, KPMG's chief economist, emphasizes that tariff-driven inflation is not yet behind us, citing lingering effects in pricing. Meanwhile, Gideon Long provides insight into Ukraine's rapidly expanding drone industry, illustrating how small producers and even florists have pivoted to support the war effort through innovative solutions.
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Jobs Data May Overstate Hiring
- Jerome Powell warned job growth estimates may be overstated by the BLS, possibly by ~60,000 jobs a month.
- That could mean actual job creation is negative while unemployment stays low because labor supply fell.
Model Changes Could Shift The Picture
- The BLS will adjust its modeling, which may produce more accurate job numbers starting in February.
- Meanwhile, late and incomplete fall jobs data (partly from the shutdown) complicates real-time assessment.
Low Unemployment Can Mask Weak Demand
- Powell noted job creation may be negative while unemployment barely moves because labor supply has declined.
- That gap may give workers a false sense of job security despite weakening labor demand.