In this discussion, Oleysa Vartanyan, a regional security analyst, Laurence Broers from Chatham House, and Thomas De Waal of Carnegie Europe dissect Armenia's shifting ties with Russia post-Nagorno-Karabakh war. They explore Armenia's quest for new alliances, like those with France and India, while still facing economic dependencies on Moscow. The panel highlights the complexities of Armenia's historical context, its reliance on Russian military support, and the ongoing geopolitical tensions with Azerbaijan, emphasizing the delicate balance Armenia must maintain.
Armenia's historical reliance on Russia for military support has wavered, driven by a disillusionment with Russian security guarantees following recent conflicts.
Amidst the shifting geopolitical landscape, Armenia is exploring new alliances with Western nations like France and India to enhance its military options.
The increasing military capabilities of Azerbaijan, bolstered by partnerships with Turkey and Israel, present significant challenges for Armenia's security and territorial integrity.
Deep dives
The Evolution of Geopolitical Context
Over the past five years, the geopolitical landscape has undergone substantial shifts, significantly affecting various regional dynamics. Notably, events such as the war in Ukraine and the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan have evolved, necessitating updates to earlier discussions about these issues. The podcast highlights how some topics, like terrorism financing and economic sanctions, have remained relevant, while others require a fresh perspective due to changing circumstances. The immediate need for updates on Ukraine and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict illustrates the fluidity of international relations.
The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict's Recent Developments
Since the last analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Azerbaijan has aggressively expanded its territory at the expense of Armenia, taking advantage of shifting power dynamics. Previously, the area was predominantly Armenian, but following Azerbaijan's military advantage bolstered by modern weaponry, the Armenian population has dwindled drastically. The predictions made about Armenia's vulnerability if Russian support waned have materialized, leading to the capture of most of Karabakh by Azerbaijan. By the latest assessment, the remaining Armenian population in the area has reduced to just 50 individuals, a stark contrast from the 150,000 noted earlier.
Armenia's Complex Geopolitical Landscape
Armenia finds itself in a precarious position, historically reliant on Russian support, yet facing diminishing confidence in that alliance. The changing geopolitical environment has prompted Armenia to seek new alliances while navigating the growing influence of neighboring countries such as Turkey and Israel. As Russia's grip on the region appears to weaken, Turkey and Iran have taken more active roles in regional security and peacekeeping. The challenge remains for Armenia to balance these relationships and address its security needs without provoking further aggression from Azerbaijan.
CSTO and Armenia's Polarized Relationship with Russia
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), designed to provide security for Armenia, has demonstrated ineffectiveness in times of crisis, contributing to Armenia's disillusionment with Russia. While previously perceived as a protector, Russia's failure to respond to Azerbaijan's escalations has led Armenia to reconsider its reliance on Russian security guarantees. Concurrently, Armenia's escalating relationship with Western nations highlights the desire for greater diversity in military partnerships and arms procurement. Despite these shifts, Armenia remains caught in a web of dependencies that complicate its foreign policy objectives.
Azerbaijan's Growing Advantage
Azerbaijan's military capabilities have been significantly enhanced by alliances with Turkey and Israel, positioning it as a dominant force in the region. With increasing economic power from oil revenues and military support from external allies, Azerbaijan has utilized force effectively in solidifying its territorial claims. Despite occasional calls for negotiations, there is skepticism about Azerbaijan’s willingness to reach a sustainable peace with Armenia. The internal political dynamics in Azerbaijan, which benefit from a unified stance against Armenia, further complicate the prospect of genuine peace efforts.
The Future of Armenia’s International Relations
Armenia's foreign policy is now characterized by attempts to diversify its partnerships amid ongoing tensions with Azerbaijan and traditional reliance on Russia. Growing relationships with countries like France and India for military supplies indicate a strategic pivot, but this approach carries risks as Armenia must balance multiple interests. The potential opening of borders with Turkey could provide economic relief while shifting the geopolitical narrative. However, lingering hostilities and territorial disputes complicate negotiations, and it remains essential for Armenia to secure favorable terms to avoid further conflicts.
The evolving relationship between Armenia and Russia has seen dramatic shifts in recent years, particularly in the wake of Armenia's devastating defeat in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war. Once heavily reliant on Russian military support, Armenia now finds itself questioning the reliability of this partnership. As Russia grapples with its own military commitments in Ukraine and its shrinking influence in the South Caucasus, Armenia has begun to explore alternative alliances, deepening ties with countries like France and India. But with Russian troops still stationed in Armenia and economic dependencies persisting, can Armenia truly pivot away from Moscow's orbit? We ask our panel of experts about the complexities of Armenia's balancing act between historical alliances and new geopolitical realities.