Prof G Markets: Arm’s AI Rally, Lyft’s Earnings Mistake, and Airbnb’s Trading Premium
Feb 19, 2024
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Prof G discusses Airbnb's stock drop post-strong earnings, Lyft's typo in earnings report, and questions Arm's rally being AI hype. Insights on market volatility, investment moves, and personal time enhancement. Dive into earnings performance, stock management mistakes, NetSuite benefits, Arm's AI transition, and speculations on upcoming company earnings reports.
Airbnb's stock fell despite strong earnings due to a one-time expense related to a tax settlement, while Lyft's earnings report typo caused a temporary dip in its share price.
Arm's stock surged 50% post-earnings, but concerns over its valuation arise as it now trades at 90 times forward earnings with only a 14% revenue growth, sparking speculation of AI washing.
Deep dives
Airbnb reports better than expected earnings with revenue up 17%
Airbnb reported better than expected earnings for the fourth quarter with revenue up 17% from a year earlier. The number of nights and experiences booked were up 12%, also surpassing expectations. Despite a one-time expense related to a tax settlement, the company reported a net loss of $350 million for the quarter compared to net income of $320 million a year ago. The stock initially dipped 4% but recovered, and now sits at a record high.
Lyft shares soar after typo in earnings report
Lyft shares soared more than 60% after posting better than expected earnings. However, the stock saw a temporary dip when it was discovered that a typo had caused an overestimation of adjusted earnings margins by 500 basis points. The correction clarified that the margins were only expected to increase by 50 basis points. Even with the correction, the stock remains up more than 30% above its previous closing price.
ARM stock surges after exceeding earnings expectations
After posting better than expected earnings, chip designer ARM saw its stock surge nearly 50%. The company reported a 14% increase in revenue and boasts a 96% gross margin. The peak trading price of ARM reached triple its IPO price from September and has settled at double its pre-earnings report level. However, concerns arise over ARM's valuation, as it now trades at 90 times forward earnings, while its year-on-year revenue growth is only 14%, leading to speculation of AI washing.
Week ahead: Earnings from Walmart, Home Depot, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Nvidia
The upcoming week will see earnings reports from major companies such as Walmart, Home Depot, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Nvidia. Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January meeting will be released, providing insights into monetary policy decisions. Predictions include expecting strong earnings from Warner Brothers Discovery, driven by cost-cutting measures and favorable pricing dynamics, while concerns remain regarding ARM's valuation amidst AI washing.
Scott breaks down why Airbnb’s stock fell despite strong earnings, and explains why he’s considering selling some of his largest holding. He then discusses Lyft’s earnings report typo and shares a similar personal story. Finally, he takes a look at Arm’s stock and questions whether its rally is owed to AI hype or AI washing.