Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger State of the Economy With Diane Swonk
13 snips
Nov 28, 2025 Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at KPMG, shares her insights on the U.S. economy amidst fluctuating trends. She explains how AI investments and wealth effects sustain growth despite a K-shaped recovery where affluence skews benefits. Diane highlights that childcare costs push skilled women out of the workforce and discusses the challenges posed by recent government shutdowns. With a forecast of 3.2% CPI, she warns that wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation, complicating consumer budgets during the holiday season.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
AI Boom Masks Uneven Growth
- AI infrastructure investment and related wealth effects have driven recent U.S. growth concentrated in a few firms.
- This makes headline growth look stronger than the everyday experience for most Americans.
The K-Shaped Economy Is Real
- A K-shaped recovery is real: affluent households are supporting spending while low- and middle-income households struggle.
- That divergence challenges the Fed because affluent spending props up services inflation even as many feel squeezed.
Watch Margins For Inflation Signals
- Expect margin squeezes to pressure firms into layoffs and possible price increases into 2026.
- Monitor corporate pricing surveys and margins for early signs of broader inflation reacceleration.