S5 Ep3: Development dialogues: The future of evidence-based policy-making
Feb 24, 2025
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Join Rory Stewart, a former UK Secretary of State for International Development and Yale senior fellow, Stefan Dercon, an Oxford professor and former chief economist, and Trudi Makhaya, ex-advisor to the South African President, as they explore the decline of evidence-based policymaking. They discuss the dangers of populism overshadowing facts, USAID's cutbacks, and the need for adaptability in policy amidst political pressures. Their insights highlight the urgency for a narrative that prioritizes human dignity in global development.
The rise of populist politics is undermining evidence-based policymaking, with emotional narratives now dominating over factual data in decision-making processes.
To counter skepticism towards research, policymakers must find ways to effectively communicate evidence while addressing the political vulnerabilities and fears of decision-makers.
Deep dives
The Erosion of Evidence-Based Policymaking
The rise of populist politics has led to a decline in evidence-based policymaking as emotional narratives gain priority over facts and data. Many policymakers are increasingly skeptical of research, perceiving it as elitist and disconnected from the realities faced by ordinary citizens. This shift is particularly evident in the context of the dismantling of vital institutions like USAID, where the termination of critical development programs has far-reaching implications for global assistance efforts. As a result, the challenge lies in re-establishing the importance of objective evidence amid a political landscape marked by skepticism and partisan rhetoric.
Finding Entry Points for Evidence
In an environment resistant to evidence, policymakers must discover entry points to introduce relevant data and facilitate understanding. These entry points can be categorized as political vulnerabilities or fears that decision-makers experience, providing opportunities to advocate for evidence-based approaches. For instance, during discussions around cash transfer programs, showing the long-term consequences of maintaining ineffective policies can change ministers' perspectives. However, this requires navigating a complex political landscape where misleading narratives are prevalent, and establishing trust is essential to promoting meaningful change.
Navigating Uncertainty in Policy Decisions
Policymakers today face the challenge of communicating uncertainty while promoting evidence-based solutions. When evidence does not promise clear outcomes, it complicates the justification for certain policy actions, often leading to pushback from actors seeking reassurance. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, economic advisors in South Africa had to carefully present data to explain the urgency of cash transfers while addressing stakeholder concerns about efficacy and accountability. This balancing act highlights the importance of integrating diverse views and collaborating across sectors to build a comprehensive strategy that resonates with various audiences.
The Changing Landscape of International Development
The debate around foreign aid has intensified, with critics on both the left and right questioning the effectiveness and ethical implications of international development programs. Amidst rising skepticism surrounding organizations like USAID, advocates must defend the utility of international aid while acknowledging its shortcomings. Highlighting successful partnerships that have led to tangible improvements in areas like public health and economic development can be instrumental in reinforcing the value of foreign assistance. By framing the discussion around mutual benefits and global cooperation, stakeholders can foster a more constructive narrative emphasizing the need for sustainable development efforts.
With populist politicians taking power around the world, policymakers are relying less
on research and expertise, as their political narratives prioritise emotion and identity
over facts. This may have long-term consequences for global development: not least
in the US, where the Agency for International Development has been dismantled,
with thousands of staff laid off. Critical development programs have been halted, and
the future of US foreign assistance is in limbo. In the latest episode of the
collaboration between Yale’s Economic Growth Center and VoxDev, host Catherine
Cheney asks Rory Stewart, former UK Secretary of State for International
Development, Stefan Dercon of the University of Oxford and formerly chief
economist of the UK Department for International Development, and Trudi Makhaya,
former economic advisor to the President of South Africa, how we can ensure that
facts and evidence still matter in policymaking.