Conversations: Tamir Hayman on Ukraine, Iran, and the future of intelligence
Sep 5, 2023
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Retired Major General Tamir Hayman offers unique insights on the Ukraine war, the potential for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of 'information super-abundance'. He discusses surprises in the Russian operation in Ukraine, the impact of Russian aggression on Ukraine, the challenges of ubiquitous surveillance and data abundance in intelligence gathering, and the issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program and the ineffective JCPOA.
Traditional principles still hold in warfare, such as the importance of combined arms and coordination, as exemplified by the Ukrainian conflict.
The age of ubiquitous surveillance poses challenges and opportunities for intelligence agencies to effectively utilize vast amounts of data through advanced technologies like AI and machine learning.
Deep dives
The Continued Relevance of Traditional Warfare
Despite expectations of major changes in warfare with advancements in technology, the Ukrainian conflict has shown that many traditional principles still hold. The importance of mass, combined arms, and infantry-air force coordination remains unchanged. Over-detailed planning can be problematic as it does not account for friction and the unpredictability of large-scale operations. The transparency of the battlefield, facilitated by open-source intelligence and advanced sensors, brings back shades of the Second World War where everyone can see everyone. The campaign's borders have also expanded to include civilian infrastructure and participation.
Lessons from the Russian Planning and Russian-Ukrainian Dynamics
The Ukrainian conflict has illuminated some surprises in Russian planning, particularly their over-tendency for detailed plans that do not account for friction on a large scale. The Russian operation to conquer airfields near Kiev and create chaos in the middle relied heavily on precise execution, which proved difficult in the face of unforeseen events. Furthermore, the conflict has shown that Russia underestimated the moral element, with Ukrainian patriotism and resilience growing in response to Russian aggression. However, the slow pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensive may be eroding motivation and causing uncertainty among soldiers, necessitating the need to maintain momentum.
Exploiting Ubiquitous Surveillance and the Challenges for Intelligence Agencies
The Ukrainian war has shed light on the age of ubiquitous surveillance, making it challenging for attacking forces to move without being detected. The combination of NATO intelligence, cheap drones, and civilians contributing information through mobile apps has provided the defending side with a significant advantage. However, the sheer volume of data does not guarantee success without proper harnessing and analysis. Intelligence agencies must adapt to the new era of information super abundance, leveraging advanced technologies like AI and machine learning. Start with a concept and desired outcome, then integrate technology, reconnaissance, gathering capabilities, and analysis to effectively utilize the vast amount of available data.
During a brief visit to Sydney, Major General (Ret'd) Tamir Hayman, Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, offered the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen his unique insights on where momentum now lies in the Ukraine war, whether Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon or stop just short of building one, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of ‘information super-abundance’.