Lowy Institute
Conversations: Tamir Hayman on Ukraine, Iran, and the future of intelligence
Sep 5, 2023
Retired Major General Tamir Hayman offers unique insights on the Ukraine war, the potential for Iran to pursue a nuclear weapon, and the role of secret intelligence in an age of 'information super-abundance'. He discusses surprises in the Russian operation in Ukraine, the impact of Russian aggression on Ukraine, the challenges of ubiquitous surveillance and data abundance in intelligence gathering, and the issues surrounding Iran's nuclear program and the ineffective JCPOA.
28:24
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Quick takeaways
- Traditional principles still hold in warfare, such as the importance of combined arms and coordination, as exemplified by the Ukrainian conflict.
- The age of ubiquitous surveillance poses challenges and opportunities for intelligence agencies to effectively utilize vast amounts of data through advanced technologies like AI and machine learning.
Deep dives
The Continued Relevance of Traditional Warfare
Despite expectations of major changes in warfare with advancements in technology, the Ukrainian conflict has shown that many traditional principles still hold. The importance of mass, combined arms, and infantry-air force coordination remains unchanged. Over-detailed planning can be problematic as it does not account for friction and the unpredictability of large-scale operations. The transparency of the battlefield, facilitated by open-source intelligence and advanced sensors, brings back shades of the Second World War where everyone can see everyone. The campaign's borders have also expanded to include civilian infrastructure and participation.
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