#967 - What’s Really Going on With the U.S. Economy? | With Julien Bittel
Feb 5, 2024
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Julien Bittel, Head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, discusses the macro landscape and business cycle trackers. Topics include the confusing state of the economy, the dangers of groupthink, investment approach and portfolio allocation strategies, analyzing performance and pricing in different sectors, and understanding the business cycle.
CryptoTax Calculator simplifies tax calculations for cryptocurrency transactions.
The Macro Investing Tool helps investors understand and navigate market conditions.
Contrary to concerns, the current inflationary cycle is unlikely to lead to high inflation and a recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis.
Deep dives
Simplifying Tax Season for Crypto Investors
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Understanding the Confusion in the Economy
There is confusion surrounding the state of the economy and markets, especially with concerns about recession and inflation. The podcast episode highlights the importance of having a framework to understand and navigate market conditions. By using the Macro Investing Tool, which assesses leading indicators and examines various economic cycles, investors can gain clarity on where the economy stands and make informed decisions regarding asset allocation.
Dispelling Inflationary Fears
Contrary to concerns about high inflation akin to the 1970s, the podcast emphasizes a different view. It suggests that the current inflationary cycle resembles the 1940s, where inflation rose sharply due to supply and demand shocks but later subsided. Factors such as demographics, debts, and GDP trends support the belief that high inflation and a recession similar to the 2008 financial crisis are unlikely. Central banks are also more equipped to manage economic downturns and prevent severe consequences.
Analyzing Banking Sector and Market Outlook
Although there has been concern about the banking sector, the podcast suggests that the market continues to be split and uncertain about the future. Looking back at 2022, banks experienced a rise of around 50%, and while they have retraced lower, it is important to consider that this is a typical pattern for January. As the market transitions into macro summer, which is projected to happen soon, sectors like banks, industrials, and small caps could see opportunities for growth and catch up.
Using Data-Dependent Approach
The podcast episode emphasizes the importance of being data-dependent and reducing uncertainty in investment decisions. By monitoring leading indicators, macro frameworks, and market behaviors, investors can better assess the ongoing economic cycle, identify potential investment opportunities, and align their portfolios accordingly.
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Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the macro landscape and how he uses his business cycle trackers to navigate the complexities of this uncertain economic environment. Check out the MACRO INVESTING TOOL: This new tool helps everybody understand what investing cycle we’re in: macro spring, summer, fall, or winter — and understand what assets are most likely to outperform over that time. Find out how you can access this incredible research in the RV Marketplace: https://www.realvision.com/marketplace
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