Against the Rules: The Big Short Companion Here’s the Scoop from NBC News: Looking Ahead to Politics in 2026 with Steve Kornacki and Ryan Nobles
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Dec 29, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, Steve Kornacki, NBC News Chief Data Analyst, and Ryan Nobles, Chief Capitol Hill Correspondent, delve into the critical dynamics shaping the 2026 midterms. They explore how demographic shifts and polarization might influence voter behavior. Kornacki highlights battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia, while Nobles emphasizes the role of candidate quality and messaging on affordability. The duo also discusses the Republican Party's struggle to forge a post-Trump identity and the implications for future elections.
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2026 Will Test Trump's New Coalition
- Trump's 2024 performance expanded the Republican coalition into non-traditional groups like Hispanic and younger non-white voters.
- 2026 will reveal whether that coalition endures and where to look for 2028 signals.
Wave Elections Are Harder To Achieve
- Polarization and gerrymandering mean classic midterm wave dynamics may be muted compared with past cycles.
- Party ID loyalty could blunt large seat swings even if the incumbent is unpopular.
Same Performance, Smaller Payoff
- Even if Democrats replicate 2018 performance, there is far less low-hanging fruit on the 2026 map.
- Identical performance could net far fewer seats because fewer competitive districts remain.