The Compound and Friends

Every Recession Begins With a Slowdown

83 snips
May 2, 2025
Guest
Neil Dutta
Neil Dutta, a partner and head economist at Renaissance Macro Research, discusses pivotal economic trends. He addresses the rising risk of recession and how tariffs influence inflation and consumer behavior. Dutta elaborates on the Federal Reserve's potential moves amidst mixed economic signals. The conversation also touches on the transformative impact of AI on major tech companies, revealing an intriguing blend of serious analysis and humorous anecdotes about life and parenting.
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INSIGHT

Tech Stocks Show Defensive Strength

  • The stock market rallies led by tech reflect a defensive quality amid economic slowdown.
  • Companies like Microsoft and Google absorb uncertainty better than small caps struggling in the real economy.
INSIGHT

Tariffs Hit Small Businesses Hard

  • Tariffs disproportionately impact small businesses, sparking concerns of a small business recession.
  • Large caps exempting key products may levitate while small businesses suffer from tariffs.
INSIGHT

Fed May Cut Despite Inflation Fears

  • The Fed is likely behind and may need to cut rates to address labor market weakness.
  • Market anticipates rate cuts despite economic ambiguity, fueled by tariff-driven inflation.
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