Real estate expert Brad Thomas discusses the fundamentals of REITs and why it's a good time to invest in them. He shares his favorite picks, including Mid-America, American Tower, Crown Castle, and Prologis, emphasizing the importance of earnings and dividends in predicting market prices. The speakers also analyze the impact of interest rates and the cost of capital on real estate companies, emphasizing the need for positive earnings growth and quality management.
REITs offer attractive fundamentals, cash flow growth, and historical resilience in recessionary environments, making them favorable investments for long-term growth and dividends.
Mid-America, American Tower, and Digital Realty are standout REITs with strong fundamentals and growth potential, despite recent market sell-offs.
Deep dives
Reasons to Consider Buying REITs
There are three key reasons why investors should consider purchasing Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) today. First, attractive fundamentals such as positive same-store net operating income (NOI) growth and strong occupancy rates indicate a solid foundation for these equity REITs. Second, cash flow growth for REITs historically remains relatively strong, with projected growth rates of 3.2% to 3.5% in 2023 and 2024. Lastly, REITs have historically performed well in recessionary environments, delivering returns of over 10% in the US and 14% in Europe, making early cycles and the end of a REIT cycle favourable entry points. Despite elevated interest rates, keeping an eye on earnings and quality management can help identify REITs with potential for future growth and dividend increases.
Analysis of Select REITs
Among the REITs discussed, three stand out: Mid-America, American Tower, and Digital Realty. Mid-America represents a stable and predictable apartment REIT with a fortress balance sheet, historical earnings growth, and projected future growth. American Tower offers a better earnings profile, a more diverse portfolio including data centers, and a lower payout ratio compared to Crown Castle. Digital Realty, with strong and stable earnings history, presents an attractive opportunity in the data center space. While all three REITs have experienced recent sell-offs due to market-wide fear, their fundamentals and growth prospects make them compelling investments for the long term.
Considerations for the New Interest Rate Environment
In the current environment of elevated interest rates, evaluating the cost of capital and investment spreads becomes crucial. Emphasizing quality management, strong balance sheets, and high-quality real estate can help safeguard against negative impacts. Although cap rates are rising, focusing on balance sheets as key value catalysts and ensuring positive investment spreads remain achievable can provide stability. While the duration of elevated interest rates is uncertain, a focus on earnings and the normalization of valuations is important. Quality REITs can navigate this environment and generate positive investment spreads, unlocking future value as market conditions stabilize.
Industry expert Brad Thomas dives deep into real estate and the individual investor (1:00). Sound fundamentals and why it's time to own REITs (3:50). Cost of capital, interest rates and keen earnings focus; Brad's favorite picks (6:00). This is an excerpt from our recent webinar, Brad Thomas' REIT Playbook For 2024 (chock-full of informative charts)
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