The Numbers Predicting 2026 in federal politics!
Dec 23, 2025
The hosts dive into their annual Over/Under Contest, predicting the political landscape for 2026. They evaluate their less-than-stellar predictions from 2025 and set lines for key topics. Will Pierre Poilievre pass his leadership review? How will Mark Carney's popularity hold up? The duo debates potential floor-crossers and by-election surprises. They discuss the NDP's future leadership dynamics and poll performance. Finally, they ponder whether an election is on the horizon and reflect on possible cabinet resignations. It's a lively forecast for the year ahead!
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Over/Under As Political Thermometer
- Eric and Philippe treat the over/under contest as a way to force clear predictions and reveal current political baselines.
- They view it as both fun and a diagnostic of how their views aged over the last year.
Past Predictions Didn’t Age Well
- They review their 2025 predictions and admit many missed calls, like underestimating Liberal vote share.
- Éric won the federal-election subset 9–7 and Philippe leads the overall series two-to-one.
Poll Peaks Require Sustained Rises
- Philippe will track weekly poll averages and set a 42.5% peak line for Conservatives in 2026.
- He frames peaks as requiring sustained high-polling periods, not single-survey spikes.