TRIGGERnometry We're Not Having Enough Kids - It's A Disaster - Stephen J. Shaw
15 snips
Sep 17, 2025 
Stephen J. Shaw, a data scientist and filmmaker known for his documentary Birthgap, delves into the alarming decline in global birthrates. He explains how the age of parenthood significantly influences fertility trends across nations. Shaw highlights the dire consequences of low birthrates, using Tokyo as a stark example of aging communities and school closures. He also tackles unplanned childlessness and critiques anti-natalism, warning of the humanitarian crises that may arise if these trends continue.
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Age-of-Parenthood Predicts Fertility
- Shaw found a consistent bell-shaped "vitality" curve across 1,539 datasets showing age of parenthood predicts national birth rates.
- Around 94% of fertility variation correlates with the central parental age, not taxes or culture.
Timing Synchrony Drives Pairing Success
- Stretching the age of parenthood dilutes societal synchrony and reduces pair-bonding opportunities.
- Shaw compares this to extending dancehall hours which removes the single peak moment for matching.
Empty Suburb Visit In Tokyo
- Shaw revisited a Tokyo suburb with his former Japanese teacher and found shuttered shops and predominately elderly residents.
- Locals reported severe loneliness and an elderly woman had recently died by suicide from isolation.
