Brian Bartholomew, a renewable energy developer, joins Jacob Mays, a Cornell professor, Eric Goff, a regulatory consultant, and Andy Reger, a DER consultant. They tackle the chaos in power markets as renewables surge, discussing how pricing strategies are adapting to extreme events. The conversation reveals Texas’s and California’s contrasting approaches to managing electric demand. They also explore skepticism towards Distributed Energy Resources and the urgent need for innovative solutions and regulatory reforms to meet future energy challenges.
The integration of renewable energy sources is causing disruptions in power market pricing and necessitating reevaluation of existing structures for future stability.
Transitioning energy markets must address interconnection delays and the evolving demands for capacity to effectively incorporate variable renewables like wind and solar.
California's experience with aggressive renewable integration and fossil fuel retirement underscores the challenges and lessons other states can learn in energy transition efforts.
Deep dives
The Current State of Power Markets
Power markets are experiencing significant changes due to increased demand and the integration of new renewable energy sources, which are challenging existing market structures. The emergence of variable output renewables, along with the need for new capacity, has created a complex environment marked by issues like interconnection delays and unprecedented pricing actions. Experts identify a three-headed monster affecting power markets: the necessity for new generation resources, evolving capacity needs, and the unique challenges posed by integration of variable renewable sources. These dynamics are driving discussions about the future landscape of energy markets, necessitating a reevaluation of how we approach energy demand and infrastructure development over the next decade.
Challenges in ERCOT After Winter Storm Uri
In Texas, following the devastating impacts of Winter Storm Uri, there has been a need to double electric demand without established Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs). The market response included substantial investments in natural gas, yet the reality is that ERCOT's structure is becoming less free, adapting to new regulations. Additionally, operational challenges persist, particularly in managing capacity from renewable sources as interconnection queues grow longer, complicating the integration of wind, solar, and storage. Experts highlight the ongoing necessity to rethink the capacity market design to ensure reliability and address emerging challenges that Texas and other states face in adapting their power grids.
California's Energy Transition Insights
California continues to be at the forefront of the energy transition, grappling with high load demands and the aggressive integration of renewables. The state has witnessed the consequences of retiring fossil fuel generation too rapidly, leading to periods of emergency procurement of electricity. The 'duck curve' phenomenon, characterized by negative midday net loads, has presented challenges in pricing and curtailment, emphasizing the evolving nature of energy markets. As operators learn to navigate these complexities, especially in relation to energy storage capacity, the state's experience serves as both a cautionary tale and a model for the rest of the country.
Accreditation and Reliability Concerns
Recent weather events, such as Winter Storm Elliott, have highlighted troubling trends in the reliability of the current generation fleet across various regional markets. As a result, both modeling and operational practices need to be scrutinized and adjusted to anticipate correlated outages more effectively. The challenges faced by operators are directing attention toward the need for new ancillary services and innovative capacity accreditation measures to improve system flexibility. With a focus on improving reliability, power markets must evolve to better incorporate the unique characteristics of emerging resources like Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) and demand response initiatives.
Future Directions for Energy Markets
Looking ahead, experts express concern over the slow pace of required changes in energy markets, primarily due to supply chain and interconnection constraints. As demand grows and new resource integration remains a priority, the expectation is that there will be a continued reliance on natural gas, especially if renewable resources fail to meet capacity needs in critical times. There is also anticipation of significant cannibalization effects in battery storage, paralleling the trends previously observed with renewables, impacting market dynamics. Ultimately, to ensure a stable and efficient energy sector, there is a pressing need to advocate for full-strength pricing mechanisms that reflect the true cost of capacity and resources in the market.
Renewables have been breaking many of the mechanisms in our power markets, irrespective of structure. Across energy only, IRP, and capacity markets, we have been seeing "weirdness" in price action and regulatory responses as solar and wind continue to dominate new installs. It’ll be an acronym stew: from PCM and RUC buying in ERCOT, adjusting ELCCs in PJM leading to capacity prices 10x'ing, to NEM 3.0 in CAISO. We want to contend with what this means today and then try to map a path into where it all leads tomorrow. Will these existing structures adapt, or will something new emerge?Speakers: Jacob Mays (Cornell), Brian Bartholomew (REV Renewables), Eric Goff (Goff Policy), Andy Reger (PA Consulting)
Moderator: James McGinniss (DER Task Force & David Energy)
This is a public episode. If you’d like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.dertaskforce.com/subscribe
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