Bloomberg Talks Nouriel Roubini Talks Tech Led Boom, Geopolitics
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Jan 13, 2026 Nouriel Roubini dives into the transformative power of AI, projecting it will significantly boost US GDP by 2030. He highlights impressive productivity gains since the launch of ChatGPT, raising questions about a 'jobless' growth. Interestingly, he downplays tensions from geopolitical risks, assessing their minimal macro impact. Roubini also tackles AI valuations, the prospects of AGI, and the implications for corporate profits versus real wages, suggesting that firms are reaping most productivity benefits.
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Tech-Led Productivity Surge
- AI is one of about 15 interrelated technologies driving a multi-decade productivity boom.
- Roubini estimates US potential growth could rise from ~1.8% today to as high as 4% by 2030 due to these technologies.
Early Signs In Productivity Data
- Macro and micro data already show higher productivity since 2019, with 2024 at 2.4% and some quarters much higher.
- S&P 500 firms' real revenue per worker rose ~15% since November 2022, signaling firm-level productivity gains.
Productivity Can Outpace Jobs
- Strong GDP growth can coexist with weak job growth during a productivity revolution.
- Firms capture much of the gains, which explains rising corporate profits despite stagnating real wages.