The Pete Quiñones Show Episode 1315: Is Iran on the Brink? w/ Firas Modad and John Fieldhouse
Jan 11, 2026
Firas Modad, a Middle East analyst and host at The Lotus Eaters, and John Fieldhouse, a former Army officer, delve into the unrest in Iran. They explore the intricate causes behind protests, comparing them to historical revolutions. Firas discusses how regional setbacks diminish the Iranian regime's legitimacy. The duo also tackles the delicate dynamics of ethnic identities and the implications of external influences. They weigh the risks of Iran's nuclear ambitions and predict how potential leadership changes could reshape the country's future.
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Multiple Roots Of Iranian Unrest
- Multiple strands fuel the current Iranian unrest including merchant-class anger, environmental collapse, hijab grievances, and loss of regional prestige.
- The Iran leadership lost its victory narrative after setbacks in Lebanon and Syria, weakening regime legitimacy.
Will Of Security Forces Matters Most
- Regimes collapse when security forces lose will to enforce order, especially in centralized authoritarian systems.
- Recent Iranian defeats abroad removed a key justification the regime used to demand domestic sacrifice.
Foreign Help Amplifies, Not Creates, Revolts
- External covert assistance can matter, but only when domestic vulnerabilities already exist.
- Foreign penetration (e.g., Israeli operations) amplified Iranian internal fragility rather than creating it from scratch.
