LSE: Public lectures and events The art of uncertainty: living with chance, ignorance, risk, and luck
Jan 22, 2025
David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge, dives into the fascinating world of uncertainty. He explores how we quantify luck and ignorance in decision-making, using engaging anecdotes and real-life examples. Discover the surprising ways probability affects our lives, from card shuffling to the odds of shared birthdays. Spiegelhalter highlights the importance of acknowledging uncertainty in data analysis and how a balanced approach to risk can enhance our understanding of chance and enhance decision-making.
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Probability as Subjective Uncertainty
- Probability reflects our uncertainty, not a definite property of objects.
- Assigning zero or one to outcomes after they occur is an outdated and misleading view.
Use Clear Probability Bands
- Quantify uncertainty using clear probability bands instead of vague words like 'fair chance.'
- Standardize verbal probabilities to communicate risks clearly in intelligence and policy making.
Honest Confidence Scoring
- Use scoring rules that punish overconfidence to measure the accuracy of your probability judgments.
- Honesty in estimating confidence maximizes your expected score and reduces overconfident errors.
