Is a peace deal in Gaza possible after the killing of Yahya Sinwar?
Oct 27, 2024
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Salman Shaikh, a former UN official, discusses the complex landscape of peace negotiations in Gaza. Hafsa Halawa, a Middle East expert, highlights the humanitarian crises complicating ceasefire efforts. Alon Pinkas, an adviser to former Israeli prime ministers, provides insights into Israeli politics and skepticism regarding peace prospects. The guests explore the death of Yahya Sinwar as a pivotal moment, the diminishing role of the UN, and the challenges of governance in the region, questioning the viability of lasting solutions amidst ongoing violence.
The killing of Yahya Sinwar has altered Hamas's leadership dynamics, complicating ceasefire negotiations amidst devastating humanitarian consequences in Gaza.
Ongoing talks face skepticism due to complex political optics, the lack of a credible interlocutor, and a diminishing role for the international community.
Deep dives
Challenges in Ceasefire Negotiations
The ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza face significant hurdles, primarily due to the complex political calculations of Israeli leadership. The lack of substantial progress over the past year has resulted in devastating humanitarian consequences, including over 40,000 Palestinian deaths. In addition, there is a growing concern that the discussions are more about domestic political optics for the United States, rather than genuine efforts to establish a lasting peace. The absence of a credible interlocutor further complicates the situation as both sides struggle to agree on substantial terms for a ceasefire, with existing conditions leading to skepticism about any resolution.
The Role of Hamas and Governance Issues
Hamas's position has become precarious following the death of its leader, Yahya Sanwar, creating uncertainty around its ability to engage effectively in ceasefire talks. The ongoing destruction in Gaza raises questions about the parameters of any proposed ceasefire, highlighting the difficulties of reconciling military actions against civilians with political negotiations. Furthermore, there is no clear governance roadmap for Gaza, contributing to the perception that post-war planning is inadequate. The regional landscape is shifting, with Egypt's security role becoming more pronounced, yet skepticism remains about Egypt's capability to influence outcomes effectively.
International Involvement and Future Prospects
The international community's role in shaping the future of Gaza appears to be diminishing, with the United Nations and other entities struggling to formulate a meaningful response to the ongoing conflict. Calls for a united international force to stabilize the region and protect civilians emphasize the need for broader involvement, yet no substantive plans have materialized. As regional players express a lack of consensus over who should take control, the legitimacy of Palestinian governance continues to be a contentious topic. With the two-state solution being deemed increasingly unviable, leaders struggle to address the urgency of the humanitarian crisis while navigating their constrained diplomatic positions.
Is a peace deal in Gaza possible after the killing of Yahya Sinwar? Leaders gather in Doha for yet another round of talks, and hopes are running high. Israel says Hamas' assassinated leader was an obstacle to peace. So, after many failed attempts, can the two sides reach an agreement now that he's gone?
In this episode:
Salman Shaikh, Former UN official.
Hafsa Halawa, Non-resident Fellow, Middle East Institute.
Alon Pinkas, Former Adviser to Israeli Prime Ministers Shimon Peres and Ehud Barak.
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