Center For Investment Excellence Unpacking policy uncertainty
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Apr 3, 2025 Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, shares his insights on the economic landscape and policy influences. He discusses the economic outlook for 2025, focusing on the effects of U.S. immigration and trade policies. Kelly highlights the potential challenges posed by declining immigration on labor force dynamics. The conversation also delves into government efficiency measures and their impact on the economy, emphasizing the delicate balance needed for fiscal and regulatory reforms to foster growth.
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2025 Economic Outlook
- David Kelly's 2024 economic forecast (2% growth, no recession, 2% inflation, 4% unemployment) proved accurate.
- He'd maintain this forecast for 2025 if not for potential policy changes.
Immigration Impact
- Reduced immigration could negatively impact US labor supply and economic growth. Higher wages and lower unemployment might result, counter to Fed goals.
Trade Policy Uncertainty
- Trade policy uncertainty under the new administration is slowing the economy. Businesses hesitate to invest or expand without knowing future tariff rates.