The Restaurant Report 204. Chipotle Challenges Sign of the Times?
Apr 26, 2022
12:28
Shares of the California-based chain crashed over 5% in the afternoon trading session, more than doubling the decline of the S&P 500 Restaurants index.
The decline could certainly be correlated with the anticipated earnings release, which is leaning in to some uncertainty as inflation impacts on margins have promoted price increases across products. According to Keybanc, prices have increased by 5-6% in a survey of over 1,500 locations. The bank noted that prices are now 3.3% higher for Steak/Barbacoa, 3.1% higher for Carnitas, and 2.4% higher for Chicken/Sofritas/Veggie entrees. These price hikes add to a spike in avocado prices to the highest level seen in nearly 25 years.
Wedbush still shows as a buy
"While CMG is not immune to incremental food cost inflation, we believe it remains relatively well-positioned to offset the incremental inflation with price increases remains relatively well-positioned to offset the incremental inflation with price increases," said a Wedbush note to investors.
In comparison to other chains our own Foodable Labs data has been tracking overall sentiment for the past eight years and Chipotle has taken a bit of a hit this past quarter.
Chipotle Overall Sentiment
This time last year - 82.3 vs 77.2 in March 2022 and a fall of 5.1 points the largest we have seen in a YOY over the past four years.
Panera Overall Sentiment
This time last year - 79.2 vs 78.4 in March 2022 (Down 1.2 Points)
Mod Pizza Overall Sentiment
This time last year - 73.2 vs 79.4 in March 2022 (Up 5.8 Points)
Sweetgreen
This time last year - 80.3 vs 74.1 in March 2022 (Down 6 points)
The decline could certainly be correlated with the anticipated earnings release, which is leaning in to some uncertainty as inflation impacts on margins have promoted price increases across products. According to Keybanc, prices have increased by 5-6% in a survey of over 1,500 locations. The bank noted that prices are now 3.3% higher for Steak/Barbacoa, 3.1% higher for Carnitas, and 2.4% higher for Chicken/Sofritas/Veggie entrees. These price hikes add to a spike in avocado prices to the highest level seen in nearly 25 years.
Wedbush still shows as a buy
"While CMG is not immune to incremental food cost inflation, we believe it remains relatively well-positioned to offset the incremental inflation with price increases remains relatively well-positioned to offset the incremental inflation with price increases," said a Wedbush note to investors.
In comparison to other chains our own Foodable Labs data has been tracking overall sentiment for the past eight years and Chipotle has taken a bit of a hit this past quarter.
Chipotle Overall Sentiment
This time last year - 82.3 vs 77.2 in March 2022 and a fall of 5.1 points the largest we have seen in a YOY over the past four years.
Panera Overall Sentiment
This time last year - 79.2 vs 78.4 in March 2022 (Down 1.2 Points)
Mod Pizza Overall Sentiment
This time last year - 73.2 vs 79.4 in March 2022 (Up 5.8 Points)
Sweetgreen
This time last year - 80.3 vs 74.1 in March 2022 (Down 6 points)