Not Another Politics Podcast Are Primary Elections Responsible for Polarization in Congress?
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Jan 22, 2026 In this conversation, Anthony Fowler, a political scientist and author, explores the intricate dynamics of primary elections and their impact on congressional polarization. He reveals that primaries influence lawmakers' votes only slightly, contributing about 1% to polarization. Anthony discusses how variations in primary timing affect voting behavior, the limited role of primaries versus other polarization forces, and how electability concerns can moderate extreme positions. His insights challenge common assumptions about the significance of primary elections in driving ideological extremes.
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Timing Reveals Primary Incentives
- Anthony Fowler tests whether members change votes before versus after their primary to identify incentive effects from primaries.
- He reasons that if primaries matter, members should vote more moderately after their primary is over.
Myopia Shapes Electoral Behavior
- Fowler highlights voter and politician myopia as one mechanism for timing effects around primaries.
- He notes politicians may act differently when focused on primary versus general election incentives.
Effect Exists But Is Substantively Tiny
- Fowler finds members do moderate after their primary, but the change is tiny in magnitude.
- In the House the effect explains roughly 1% of observed partisan polarization.