War on the Rocks Holding Ground: Ukraine, Russia, and the Politics of Persistence
20 snips
Oct 15, 2025 
Michael Kofman, a military expert at the Carnegie Endowment, and defense analyst Dara Massicot delve into the intricacies of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They discuss the current battlefield dynamics, Ukraine's strategic choices, and the possible impact of Tomahawk missiles. The duo highlights Russia’s domestic challenges and explores how drone warfare is reshaping tactics. With winter approaching, they predict stabilization on the frontlines and caution against relying on unlikely contingencies in military strategy.
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Diffuse Offensive And Expanded Strike Campaigns
- The front remains in an offensive phase with diffuse Russian pushes across Donetsk, Kupiansk, and Liman axes.
- Both sides are increasingly waging long-range strike campaigns against energy and industrial infrastructure.
War Of Exhaustion And Reciprocal Energy Strikes
- Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil and gas forced reciprocal Russian strikes on Ukrainian gas production.
- The war increasingly looks like a war of exhaustion where long-range fires matter more than positional gains.
Territory Gains Are Costly And Limited
- Russian operational aims haven't translated into decisive gains despite higher territorial figures in 2025.
- Their advances are often tactically costly and not operationally decisive for closing Donetsk objectives.