From ClawdBots to Sauna Bros: Silicon Valley in 2026

62 snips

Jan 23, 2026

A lively debate on whether SF or New York is winning the VC game. Wild seed valuations and why huge AI early rounds can still lose money. Tensions from executives walking out and the rise of mercenary teams. Big talk about orchestration: ClawdBots, recursive AI agents, and whether phones are becoming obsolete. Plus Apple’s AI pin, threats to subscription businesses, and a sauna-culture detour.

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INSIGHT

Big Seed Valuations Can Still Fail Funds

Seed-stage returns can look great but still fail to return a whole seed fund.
Sam Lessin and Dave Morin argue massive seed valuations often aren't fund-returning despite big headline multiples.

ADVICE

Two Ways To Win Today

Own a real secret or control the narrative to win in today's market.
Spend capital efficiently on secrets; otherwise raise enough to truly own the narrative before scaling.

INSIGHT

Human-Capital Fragility In AI Teams

AI startups with large co-founding teams are fragile because value is mostly human capital.
Dave Morin calls the culture 'mercenary' where co-founders quickly leave when incentives shift.

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While Jess is off being “Davos-famous,” the squad kicks things off with the classic California vs. New York debate. From there, it’s straight into AI and VC chaos: absurd mega-seed rounds that break portfolio math, why even a great early bet like Anthropic wouldn’t return a seed fund, and a revisit of Sam’s view that there are only two ways to win right now—(1) have a real secret and stay capital-efficient, or (2) own the narrative. Dave flags a new “walkout culture” in AI, where executives jump ship the moment incentives shift. The crew then debates whether AI is actually shaping ideas or just polishing them (a fancy spellcheck?), why the question matters more than the answer, and how personal, computer-driving “Clawdbots” feel inevitable and maybe exactly where Apple should be headed, despite the security concerns. The episode rounds out with The Information's breaking news on Apple's AI pins, shrinking subscription moats and business-model shifts, plus detours into the New York Times’ sauna-bros piece, Sam’s WTF Conference protest merch, Super Bowl plans, and more.Chapters:01:00 – Hello Davos listeners!03:42 – SF vs. New York: where VC actually wins05:41 – The seed valuation "fairway" vs bloated-roads10:07 – Anthropic & OpenAI: good wins, but bad seed returns11:58 – AI founder drama: mercenary teams & narrative fundraising13:53 – Did Claude write its own constitution?15:18 – AI as spellcheck on steroids21:01 – Ralph: autonomous AI agent loop24:03 – What ClawdBot really is; symphony orchestrator26:51 – The Information breaks: Apple’s AI wearable pin; are phones getting tired?29:02 – The rise of “orchestra compute” and hacked APIs31:44 – Subscription models are at risk: Whoop, Eight Sleep, Peloton, Apple41:18 – The New York Times' feature on Sauna Bros44:53 – Sam's WTF Conference merch & Montana shooting plans46:34 – Squad's Super Bowl plansWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/AgwMFLjxQa0Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit