Guest Torsten B, an expert on tax and spend policies, joins the hosts to analyze the recent tax cuts announced in the autumn statement and their impact on different income groups. They discuss the freezing of income tax and national insurance thresholds, the overall trend of tax rises, and the challenges faced by the next administration in terms of taxes, public services, and low productivity. They also touch on multiculturalism in Britain and announce the podcast's move to Tortois News and a new series called Walter's War.
The tax cuts announced in the Autumn Statement mainly benefit higher-income earners, resulting in only a small average benefit of around £100 for individuals.
Freezing income tax and national insurance thresholds while earnings increase leads to a higher tax burden for individuals and the economy as a whole.
Deep dives
Tax cuts in the Autumn Statement and their impact on individuals
The podcast discusses the tax cuts announced in the Autumn Statement and their impact on individuals. The analysis from the Resolution Foundation reveals that while there are overall tax cuts for individuals, the benefits are mainly enjoyed by those earning more than the median income. The podcast highlights that the tax cuts need to be seen in the context of larger tax rises, particularly the freezing of income tax and national insurance thresholds. While 29 million households will benefit from the tax cuts, the average benefit is offset by the cost of tax rises, resulting in individuals being only about £100 better off on average.
The importance of considering thresholds in the tax system
The podcast emphasizes the significance of considering thresholds in the tax system and the impact of freezing them in cash terms. This leads to more people entering the tax system and an increase in the average tax rate for those already paying taxes. The decision to leave the thresholds frozen, while earnings increase with inflation, results in a higher tax burden for individuals. The podcast explains that this freeze on thresholds contributes to a rise in the tax burden on the economy as a whole, despite the announced tax cuts.
Examining the claim of the 'biggest tax cut in fiscal history'
The podcast explores the claim made by the government about the Autumn Statement being the biggest tax cut in fiscal history. While there are indeed significant tax cuts announced, the analysis suggests that the total tax rises already in place surpass the effects of the tax cuts, resulting in an overall net tax rise. The podcast highlights that this claim is mainly due to the large tax rises already announced and the net effect of all tax cuts and rises combined. It is mentioned that the government's statement is accurate in terms of tax cuts announced, but the net effect is a tax rise.
The future challenges for the next government
The podcast discusses the challenges that will be faced by the next government, regardless of political affiliation. It highlights the drop in real disposable income during this parliament, making it unusual for voters to enter a general election with lower incomes than before. The analysis suggests that it is unlikely for the current budget to significantly change the perception of the government's handling of the economy. The podcast mentions that the next administration will need to address the need for higher investment levels, a focus on public services, and the challenge of reducing the tax burden while improving living standards.
Jeremy Hunt announced £20bn in personal and business tax cuts in his recent Autumn Statement. But to pay for that schools, hospitals and other public services won’t be protected from the rising cost of inflation. On top of that, forecasters predict economic growth will be weak and inflation will remain high over the next few years. So what choices do taxpayers face and what might greet a new government next year when it comes to tax and spend? John Curtice and Rachel Wolf are joined by Torsten Bell who runs the Resolution Foundation think tank.
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