Wall Street Breakfast Wall Street Roundup: is this time really different?
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Oct 31, 2025 The latest discussion dives into a divided Fed meeting and the implications of recent economic shifts. Amazon's layoffs spark a debate on whether they stem from economic caution or AI-driven changes. Meta showcases strong earnings, raising contrasts with Alphabet. Apple remains uncertain as a wait-and-see situation. An under-the-radar AI play emerges from Caterpillar. Anticipation builds around upcoming earnings from Palantir and AMD, while NVIDIA achieves a remarkable $5 trillion valuation, prompting discussions on AI hype.
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Fed Deeply Divided On Rate Path
- The Fed is split on policy with votes ranging from no cut to a 50bps cut, reflecting deep uncertainty.
- Inflation near 3% and slowing labor-market signals make rate paths unclear despite an October cut.
Layoffs: Cyclical Pain Meets Structural Change
- Short-term layoffs reflect economic cooling, while long-term AI adoption could permanently replace jobs.
- Interest-rate cuts won't rescue jobs that are structurally eliminated by automation.
Real-Time Diagnosis Is Hard; Hindsight Matters
- It's hard to tell in real time whether current trends mark a permanent 'new normal' or a transient cycle.
- Only hindsight over years will reveal if today's shifts are structural turning points.