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GDP Distortion and True Growth
- Headline GDP was distorted by gold inflows and tariff-related inventory changes.
- Adjusted GDP was around 3%, indicating the economy was doing fine before tariff impacts.
Companies Show Confidence Amid Fear
- Companies providing or increasing guidance show confidence despite market stress.
- This contrasts broad market fear, revealing a contrarian optimism in management tone.
Tariffs Impact Inflation Complexly
- Tariff increases create complex economic effects beyond simple price additions.
- Exchange rate movements and parties absorbing costs complicate inflation impacts, unlike straightforward calculations.