BJJ Mental Models Mini Ep. 84: Probabilistic Thinking
Dec 11, 2025
Explore the fascinating world of probabilistic thinking in Jiu-Jitsu, where success is all about maximizing your odds. Discover why fights are unpredictable, and guarantees are a myth. Learn how dominant positions like mount can control the game by limiting your opponent's options. Delve into the idea of prioritizing position over submission, and find out when it might be worth taking risks for a submission. This engaging discussion highlights strategic thinking that can fundamentally change your approach on the mat.
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Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
There Are No Sure Things
- Jiu-jitsu has no guaranteed moves that always work; certainty is rare in combat.
- Steve Kwan advises shifting from seeking absolutes to thinking in probabilities while grappling.
Self-Defense Expectations Versus Reality
- Steve Kwan recounts his self-defense hopes when he started jiu-jitsu and how experience changed his view.
- He learned fighting is chaotic and you cannot guarantee safety even with training.
Control Probabilities With Position
- Probabilistic thinking means prioritizing positions and actions that raise your chance of success.
- Steve Kwan explains dominant positions reduce opponent options and make outcomes more predictable.