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Economic forecasting has often been as much of an art as a science, but since the pandemic it seems to have turned into a full on Jackson Pollock painting.

Remember when Biden-era inflation was transitory? Or when a recession was a 100 percent certainty at the start of 2022? Or how about when President Trump’s election to a second term marked the start of renewed boom times? You’d be forgiven if you started to think folks were just flinging s**t at a wall.

But even in this era of uncertainty and folly, this moment feels especially disorienting. What is the deal with all the on-again-off-again tariffs? Are the latest promising inflation numbers the calm before the storm? And what do Republicans actually want to do about the deficit, or Medicaid, or taxes?

Lucky for us, if anyone can make sense of this economic Jackson Pollock, it’s our guest on today’s podcast. Neil Irwin is the Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios. He’s also the author of "The Alchemists" and "How to Win."

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