Collateral Benefits Of Pre-Mortem Analysis

Apr 8, 2025

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Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.

Justin and his guests, Denise Sobczak and Michael Zuraw, introduce the new RIMS paper: "The Pre-Mortem Method: Learning From Failure Without Actually Failing". Unlike post-mortem analysis, a pre-mortem risk assessment attempts to learn from failure before a project even begins. This report highlights the advantages of implementing a pre-mortem risk assessment approach to strategic projects. Download the report to learn about the three steps to activate a pre-mortem assessment that fosters a better understanding of a project's overall objectives, and ultimately improves transparency, communication, and business outcomes. Justin, Michael, and Denise discuss implementation steps and frequency of pre-mortems in an organization. They cover ways of documentation and tracking insights from pre-mortem exercises, and tools for structuring an effective pre-mortem session. They explore how to involve participants and how to flip the script from naysaying to contributing insights. They consider the collateral benefits of involving your organization in a pre-mortem analysis. They share examples of how the pre-mortem works in their organizations.

Listen to gain insight into this innovative risk management tool to build upon the successes and achievements of your organization.

Key Takeaways:

[:01] About RIMS and RIMScast.

[:17] About this episode of RIMScast. Our topic is pre-mortem analysis, which we will explore with past and present members of the RIMS Strategic & Enterprise Risk Management Council.

[:42] RIMS-CRMP Workshops! As part of RIMS's continuing strategic partnership with Purima, we have a two-day course coming up on April 22nd and 23rd. Links to these courses can be found through the Certification page of RIMS.org and this episode's show notes.

[1:01] Virtual Workshops! On April 16th and 17th, Chris Hansen will lead "Managing Worker Compensation, Employer's Liability, and Employment Practices in the U.S."

[1:14] On June 12th, Pat Saporito will host "Managing Data for ERM" and will return on June 26th to present the very popular new course, "Generative AI for Risk Management".

[1:30] A link to the full schedule of virtual workshops can be found on the RIMS.org/education and RIMS.org/education/online-learning pages. A link is also in this episode's show notes.

[1:41] RISKWORLD registration is open. Engage Today and Embrace Tomorrow, May 4th through 7th in Chicago. Register at RIMS.org/RISKWORLD. Also, remember that there will be lots of pre-conference workshops being held in Chicago just ahead of RISKWORLD.

[1:59] These courses include "Applying and Integrating ERM," "Captives as an Alternate Risk Financing Technique," "Contractual Risk Transfer," "Fundamentals of Insurance," "Fundamentals of Risk Management," RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep, and more! The links are in the show notes.

[2:18] In March, RIMS released a new professional report called "The Pre-Mortem Method: Learning from Failure Without Actually Failing." The two authors of this report are joining me here today! They have both been RIMScast guests.

[2:39] Denise Sobczak is the Director of Group Risk Management at the BIC Group and Michael Zuraw is the Senior Director of Global Enterprise Risk Management for Onsemi.

[2:52] Denise is a former member and Michael is a current member of the RIMS Strategic & Enterprise Risk Management Council. Their paper, "The Pre-Mortem Method," is available through the Risk Knowledge page of RIMS.org. Tap on the White Paper button on that page.

[3:10] We're going to hear how Denise and Michael have used the pre-mortem method at their respective companies. We're going to give you tips on how to lead pre-mortem analysis discussions at your organizations whether for a big merger or unveiling a new product.

[3:32] This conversation will continue on May 7th at RISKWORLD when Denise hosts "Pre-Mortem or Post-Mortem: If You Were a Patient, What Would Choose?" That session will be held in Room BC185.

[3:47] Interview! Michael Zuraw and Denise Sobczak, welcome back to RIMScast!

[3:55] Denise and Michael's paper is "The Pre-Mortem Method: Learning from Failure Without Actually Failing." Pre-mortem analysis is a risk assessment approach that you apply to strategic projects.

[4:13] The concept is simple. You assume that an initiative fails. Then you identify triggers of that failure and develop plans to avoid and mitigate them to achieve success. It was developed by Gary Klein and has been widely applied in the business world.

[4:39] Michael says the approach was discovered by cognitive psychologists. It releases folks from some of the biases, such as groupthink and confirmation bias, that will muck up decisions. This approach encourages participation and takes risk identification to the next level.

[5:07] Justin calls the paper an easy read that people can keep returning to.

[5:22] The Strategic & ERM Council decided to do a track on scenario planning. One of their first shareouts was a paper on scenario planning with a segue on pre-mortem risk assessment on how to draw those scenarios.

[5:44] Many things are going on, with a level of uncertainty in the external environment that drives uncertainty in the internal environment. As a risk practitioner, it's very important to have these tools.

[5:59] Michael joined the Strategic & ERM Council a little over a year ago after they had started the scenario planning. He had already read the SERM Council paper on scenario planning with great interest. Michael is a fan of Gary Klein's and had used pre-mortems.

[6:24] When Denise and others mentioned they were going to take the next step in their series of scenario planning to include a pre-mortem discussion, Michael immediately volunteered to be part of it. It was a topic he was familiar with and he had done some sessions on it already.

[7:05] Denise explains a pre-mortem is one of many risk assessment tools available. There's no set number for how often an organization should perform one. The main attraction of this tool is its use when you are short on time and have few resources and you want a high-value output.

[7:53] It's good to use a pre-mortem when there are a lot of cross-functional initiatives with interdependencies that create complexity and generate risks.

[8:07] Michael thinks that for major strategic decisions, a pre-mortem should almost always be used. As you use it, you find out that it's very efficient and not complicated. You can learn from it to include contrarians in discussions to question all assumptions. It changes your risk culture.

[8:52] Pieces of the pre-mortem method find their way into the way people approach everyday decisions, even without doing a formal pre-mortem analysis. A pre-mortem analysis is not difficult or expensive to do. As often as you think it provides value, have at it!

[9:20] The primary thing a pre-mortem does is open the door to legitimizing doubt. It allows the group decision process to stay in inquiry not to be sucked into advocacy before all the risks are discussed and mitigated.

[9:44] Michael notes that as the pre-mortem opens up concerns, they can be put on the table and discussed. The key is you have to take the next step which is to consider what you can change and improve your plan to prepare for the possibility of that risk and mitigate it.

[10:08] The goal is to take what you've learned, feed it back into the decision process, and come out with a better plan than you had going in.

[10:16] It's very key to get the insights and embed them into the company's core processes versus having a stand-alone tracker for the pre-mortem that you've done. If you've done a pre-mortem for a strategic initiative, integrate it into the status update reports for that initiative.

[10:34] If the pre-mortem is related to an event, integrate it into regular management reviews, operating reviews, or even risk governance. Integrate insights that will help you into your core processes.

[10:49] Denise and Justin discuss recording remote pre-mortem sessions on Zoom and transcribing them. Justin suggests recording even in-person sessions on Zoom for a transcript.

[11:40] Michael says having a transcript of a pre-mortem helps because you want people to focus attention on the conversation and not on note-taking. Sometimes you want to go back and get some context. In-person meetings also allow seeing body language.

[12:11] The point of this is to get it out there and talk about it. It's very interactive.

[13:19] Pre-mortems are structured to picture a failure six months into the future. Then set a two-minute timer and ask everyone to write down what went wrong. Each one comes up with ideas without the group's influence and writes down key failure points that caused this outcome.

[14:04] As a result, things that were just below the surface come out first. Even the staunchest advocate of the plan has to come up with something. The creativity of what could have gone wrong becomes an asset, not a detriment.

[14:31] You're not a naysayer, you're an identifier. The basic premises of ERM are risk identification, risk prioritization, and risk response. A pre-mortem creates a more robust identification. You're a contributor. You've discussed something that you hadn't before.

[14:54] Denise explains that a pre-mortem is a paradise for the naysayers because they don't have the burden to say it failed. We give that to them. It's not about being skeptical or negative but identifying the contributors that could have caused the failure and being part of the solution.

[15:18] Plug Time! RIMS Webinars! On April 10th, Audit Board will present "What CISOs Want Risk Executives to Know About Cyber Risk in 2025".

[15:30] Following the success of their recent webinar, HUB International returns for the next installment of their Ready for Tomorrow Series, "From Defense to Prevention: Strengthening Your Liability Risk Management Approach". That session will be on April 17th.

[15:45] On April 24th, RiskConnect returns to deliver "Better Together: The Marriage of Insurable Risk and Business Continuity".

[15:54] More webinars will be announced soon and added to the RIMS.org/webinars page. Go there to register. Registration is complimentary for RIMS members.

[16:05] Important Announcement! RIMS and the Institute of Internal Auditors have entered into an agreement to deliver a selection of the other group's educational programming to their members. Twenty-nine shared courses will be available to both association's members.

[16:23] RIMS members can explore the IIA courses that are now available to them at See Courses Here. To access RIMS's complete selection of workshops, webinars, and courses, visit RIMS.org/Education.

[16:42] Let's Get Back to our Discussion about Pre-Mortem Analysis with Michael Zurow and Denise Sobczak!

[17:09] Denise says individuals who have had experience with failures can tap into that experience in new situations. Newcomers can offer a fresh perspective. The key is diversity of thought and experience. Make participants comfortable to express their opinions.

[17:38] Watch out for those who would take over. As you facilitate the pre-mortem, make sure that you're engaging and that it's a responsive type of facilitation. There's no right or wrong answer when you're looking for triggers. Later on, you will prioritize.

[18:22] Michael has been at Onsemi for 20 years with broad exposure in product line management and supply chain. Four and a half years ago, Onsemi had a new CO and much of the top management changed. The question was what did the stakeholders want from ERM.

[18:44] There was some change in how they approached it. He did pre-mortems before and he has done them since. The key is broad participation of the players, broad perspectives, and leading it to say that we want to know what you think. We want to question our assumptions.

[19:08] That basic approach is to try to make the plan better, not bring it down, trying to improve the likelihood of success. That plays through all types of corporate change.

[19:35] Participants should not be in the top tier of leaders, but in middle management with some boots on the ground. The middle management group forms the culture and they know enough key details about what the planners are thinking and to ask, what if they're wrong?

[20:14] Denise expects the participants to be the people who are knee-deep in the initiative and are the subject matter experts. You can also invite folks who are not in the initiative but who have a say from the legal, financial, and business support perspectives.

[20:42] The number of participants depends on the setting. An in-person setting can accommodate 10 or 15. In a virtual setting, you can have eight to 10. You need to make sure that everyone can participate.

[21:14] More RIMS Plugs! The Spencer Educational Foundation's goal to help build a talent pipeline of risk management and insurance professionals is achieved in part by its collaboration with risk management and insurance educators across the U.S. and Canada.

[21:33] Since 2010, Spencer has awarded over $3.3 million in general grants to support over 130 student-centered experiential learning initiatives at universities and RMI non-profits.

[21:46] Spencer's 2026 application process will open on May 1st, 2025, and close on July 30th, 2025. General Grant awardees are typically notified at the end of October. Learn more about Spencer's General Grants through the Programs tab of SpencerEd.org.

[22:06] Spencer has several events lined up before and during RISKWORLD 2025. On May 3rd, there's the Spencer-CNA Pickle Ball Social, on May 4th, the Spencer-Gallagher Golf Tournament, on May 5th, the Spencer Soiree, and on May 6th, the Spencer-Sedgwick 5K Fun Run.

[22:25] You can register for or sponsor any of these through the links on this page or by visiting SpencerEd.org/riskworld2025.

[22:35] The call for submissions for the RIMS Canada Conference, which will be held in Calgary from September 14th through the 17th, 2025, is now open. We want to hear from you! We are looking for dynamic, insightful presentations on key industry topics.

[22:49] Topics may include are but not limited to alternative risk transfer, insurance, legal and regulatory, risk modification and loss control, the DEI Studio, the Thought Leader Stage, corporate sustainability, ESG, and more.

[23:03] Submit your proposal by the submission deadline, Wednesday, April 16th at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Visit RIMSCanadaConference.ca and the link in this episode's notes for information.

[23:17] If you will be in the Dallas/Fort Worth area on April 17th, be sure to stop by Lone Star Park for DFW RIMS's 7th Annual Night at the Races. It's going to be a blast! Guest, member, and student tickets are available. Visit DFWRIMS.org and the link in this episode's show notes.

[23:41] Let's Return to our Discussion about Pre-Mortem Analysis with Denise Sobczak and Michael Zurow!

[24:02] Denise mentions different ways to measure the ROI of a pre-mortem, in the light of inherited risk impact before mitigation versus residual risk, post-mitigation.

[24:16] For a consumer goods company like BIC, Denise says it is more sensible to tie the effectiveness of the pre-mortem exercise with the overall achievement of the strategic goals or the operating targets because you are changing as you go.

[24:38] Michael says it's tough to measure the effectiveness of a pre-mortem. You're asking a team that has already been assembled to spend half a day looking at the plan and, at the end, asking if they learned something that helped improve the plan.

[25:30] Is the plan or decision better the day after the pre-mortem than it was the day before? Was it worth the four hours? Would you suggest doing this again? Would you recommend it to your peer? Advocating for a pre-mortem indicates its value, way beyond the cost of doing it.

[26:16] Denise stresses the collateral benefits of a pre-mortem. If you are facilitating this type of risk assessment, you will reach a lot of folks in the organization and help them think differently. They will think of the risk management department or the ERM practitioner as a resource to use.

[26:37] There is some amplification from a showcase of value to the organization from your function. Denise says a pre-mortem never took a day for her. Once she applied a pre-mortem in a 20-minute phone call with all the constituents. They came up with 15 reasons it could fail.

[27:02] A pre-mortem can be formal or informal. The informal pre-mortem is as efficient and it is quicker. You need to understand what the culture of your organization is. If it is very formal, adapt to that. Denise tends to work in more agile organizations.

[27:36] Michael works for a company that is heavy in engineering. A pre-mortem takes about two hours there. Engineers want to solve problems and tell you why their solution to the problem is awesome! They want data and rationalization justification.

[28:15] Part of it is the moderation. Say the goal of this meeting is to get the concerns and issues out on the table. Afterward, we'll do a quick prioritization so we can assign owners to address the next step of how this feeds back into improving the plan.

[28:32] As everybody took two minutes to write down the issues, get them out on the table and rotate through the biggest issue from each person as quickly as you can, one at a time, so no one gets into a laundry list of items. Keep the discussion moving across all the participants.

[28:55] What you get is honest dialog and everyone participates. If you do that, you'll avoid overcomplicating it. It can be very simple. It's structured to help you manage that. As long as you keep it moving, it will be fine.

[29:12] On 1:45 p.m., on May 7th, at RISKWORLD, in Room 185BC. Denise will be presenting "Pre-Mortem or Post-Mortem: If You Were Patient, Which One Would You Choose?" Denise will be extending the dialog from the paper and this episode.

[29:37] Denise will miss Michael on stage. They had a successful session together at the RIMS ERM Fall Conference. Now that the paper is published, the presentation will be more robust.

[29:55] The presentation will cover what pre-mortem risk assessment entails. You basically assume the strategic project has failed. Then you identify the triggers of that failure and develop plans to avoid and mitigate them to achieve success. Then you monitor.

[30:25] Once Denise goes through the fundamentals, she will take you through a hands-on exercise of applying this technique. She will give a business case and have the audience start solving it and finding triggers. It's very easy. It will give a sense of what this is all about.

[30:52] Denise's aim is that the participants, with the presentation and the white paper, will have another skillset to apply and bring value to their organization. There will be audience participation to close out the last day of the education track at RISKWORLD.

[31:20] Denise will have a full hour and then there will be more audience participation when the Second City takes the stage for the Conference Finale.

[31:34] Justin recommends attendees check out Denise's solid one-hour presentation. She assures you there will be no coasting in her session!

[31:59] It has been such a pleasure to see you both. I appreciate you taking the time. You wrote a wonderful paper. The link is in this episode's notes. Go to RIMS.org/riskknowledge to check it out. Press the White Paper button and it will pop right up. Thank you both so much!

[32:18] Special thanks again to Michael Zuraw and Denise Sobczak for joining us here on RIMScast. A link to their paper, "The Pre-Mortem Method: Learning from Failure Without Actually Failing" is available through the Risk Knowledge of RIMS.org. A link is in this episode's notes.

[32:35] Beyond the pages and this episode, Denise will be extending the dialog at RISKWORLD on May 7th at 1:45 p.m. local time. She will deliver "Pre-Mortem or Post-Mortem: If You Were a Patient, Which Would You Choose?" That session will be held in room 185BC.

[32:52] Register in advance through the RIMS Events App.

[32:55] Plug Time! You can sponsor a RIMScast episode for this, our weekly show, or a dedicated episode. Links to sponsored episodes are in the show notes.

[33:24] RIMScast has a global audience of risk and insurance professionals, legal professionals, students, business leaders, C-Suite executives, and more. Let's collaborate and help you reach them! Contact pd@rims.org for more information.

[33:41] Become a RIMS member and get access to the tools, thought leadership, and network you need to succeed. Visit RIMS.org/membership or email membershipdept@RIMS.org for more information.

[33:59] Risk Knowledge is the RIMS searchable content library that provides relevant information for today's risk professionals. Materials include RIMS executive reports, survey findings, contributed articles, industry research, benchmarking data, and more.

[34:16] For the best reporting on the profession of risk management, read Risk Management Magazine at RMMagazine.com. It is written and published by the best minds in risk management.

[34:30] Justin Smulison is the Business Content Manager at RIMS. You can email Justin at Content@RIMS.org.

[34:37] Thank you all for your continued support and engagement on social media channels! We appreciate all your kind words. Listen every week! Stay safe!

Links:

Presented by the RIMS SERMC: "The Pre-Mortem Method: Learning From Failure Without Actually Failing"

RISKWORLD 2025 — May 4‒7 | Register today!

Spencer Educational Foundation — General Grants 2026 — Application Dates

Spencer's RISKWORLD Events — Register or Sponsor!

RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP)

RISK PAC | RIMS Advocacy

RIMS Risk Management magazine

RIMS Now

Announcement: RIMS and The Institute for Internal Auditors' Strategic Alliance on Education

RIMS Canada Conference 2025 | September 14‒17 | Calgary | Submit a session by April 16.

DFW RIMS — 7th Annual Night at the Races / Lone Star Park – April 17, 2025