Terry Smith, manager of Fundsmith Equity, shares his expertise on navigating today's challenging stock market landscape. He discusses the significant influence of tech heavyweights and the rise of passive investing. Terry reveals his recent stock purchases while explaining why he sold Diageo and opted against Nvidia. He challenges conventional views on dividends, advocating for a focus on total returns over income. Additionally, he provides insights into the UK stock market and cautions against the pitfalls of mistaking low prices for true value.
The concentration of returns among the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks has increased challenges for active funds to outperform market indices.
Active investors should focus on total returns over dividends, as reinvesting profits can significantly enhance long-term value creation.
Deep dives
Challenges for Active Funds
The challenge for active funds to outperform market indices has intensified, particularly due to a concentration of returns among a few major technology companies. Since early 2023, a significant portion of gains in major indices like the S&P 500 has stemmed from just seven firms, reflecting a shifting landscape where these select stocks account for over 30% of the index. This has created a substantial headwind for active fund managers who are seeking to diversify and invest in quality businesses outside this concentrated group. Consequently, the struggle for active funds to generate alpha has become more pronounced in a market heavily influenced by a narrow list of high-performing stocks.
Impact of Rising Interest Rates
The performance of equity funds has been adversely affected by rising interest rates that began to escalate in late 2021, creating challenges for managers who prioritize quality investments. As interest rates rise, valuations become pressured, particularly for long-term growth stocks, resulting in wider valuation disparities between quality companies and average market stocks. The struggle against rising rates has not only impacted active managers but has also contributed to a market environment where many funds fall short of index performance. This recognition of market inefficiencies and the dynamics of interest rate impacts underscores the complexity of investment strategies in a changing economic context.
The Shift Towards Passive Investing
The rise of passive investing has dramatically influenced market dynamics, as index funds now represent more than half of total market investments, driving capital towards market cap-weighted companies. This momentum strategy creates a self-fulfilling cycle, where money flows into the largest entities, further enhancing their performance and attraction as investment vehicles. This trend raises concerns among active managers about the disparity in stock pricing, especially as fundamental analysis seems overshadowed by passive trends. Moreover, there is apprehension regarding the implications of excessive passive investment on market efficiency and price discovery.
Investment Philosophy on Dividends
The strategy of prioritizing total returns over income from dividends is a core belief among active investors. Dividends reduce a company's capacity to reinvest in its growth, which can hinder long-term value creation. Historical examples, such as Berkshire Hathaway, illustrate that companies focused on reinvesting capital tend to deliver superior returns compared to those distributing dividends. This perspective suggests that investors should seek companies capable of high returns on capital without relying on income distributions, thereby enhancing potential overall growth.
To mark our 100th episode Kyle interviewed Terry Smith, manager of Fundsmith Equity. Among the topics discussed are whether it has become harder for active funds to outperform the index due to the strong performance of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks. Terry also runs through the rationales behind the two stocks he has bought this year. He explains why Diageo was recently sold, and why he hasn’t bought Nvidia. Kyle also asksTerry for his view on the UK stock market, and to explain why he thinks “no one should invest in equities for income”.
On The Money is an interactive investor (ii) podcast. For more investment news and ideas, visit www.ii.co.uk/stock-market-news.
Kyle Caldwell is Collectives Editor at interactive investor.
Important information: This material is intended for educational purposes only and is not investment research or a personal recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument or product, or to adopt any investment strategy. The value of your investments can rise as well as fall, and you could get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The investments referred to may not be suitable for all investors, and if in doubt, you should seek advice from a qualified investment adviser. SIPPs are aimed at people happy to make their own investment decisions. Investment value can go up or down and you could get back less than you invest. You can normally only access the money from age 55 (57 from 2028). We recommend seeking advice from a suitably qualified financial adviser before making any decisions. Pension and tax rules depend on your circumstances and may change in future. If you are in any doubt about the suitability of a Stocks & Shares ISA, you should seek independent financial advice. The tax treatment of this product depends on your individual circumstances and may change in future. If you are uncertain about the tax treatment of these products, you should contact HMRC or seek independent tax advice. Interactive Investor Services Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
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