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Lance Tarrance is one of the founding fathers of modern political polling. In this conversation, he talks what drew him into the world of GOP politics, an inflection point working at the US Census Bureau, going to work for Ronald Reagan’s pollster, then opening up his own firm The Tarrance Group. Lance goes deep on several of his interesting races...including beating Bill Clinton in his first gubernatorial re-elect in 1980, the upset Senate win of Mitch McConnell in 1984, his involvement in the California gubernatorial race that gave rise to the so-called “Bradley Effect”, his analysis predicting the rise of a Donald Trump-type candidate & many great stories and insights from his incredible career in politics.

IN THIS EPISODE…

Barry Goldwater inspires Lance to take his career in a dramatically different direction than he’d planned…

Lance helps disrupt Hubert Humphrey in the ’68 Nixon campaign…

How working for the US Census Bureau changed Lance’s life…

Lance enters the world of political polling, working with Regan pollster Dick Wirthlin…

Lance makes a professional bet on partisan realignment in the South & Sun Belt…

The crosstabs that Lance used to help Republicans take the South…

Lance helps engineer the defeat of Governor Bill Clinton in his 1980 re-election…

Lance’s key role handling the polling for Mitch McConnell’s 1984 upset Senate win…

The story behind the most famous US Senate ad ever for McConnell’s ’84 race…

Lance elects a Republican Governor of California in 1982 amidst the so-called “Bradley Effect”…

Lance’s prescient writing and analysis that (partially) anticipated the rise of Donald Trump…

Lance on what makes an effective pollster…

AND academic treatises, John Adams, Roger Ailes, American University, the American Voter Model, backwoods Kentucky, Vince Barabba, Blue Dogs, Bluetick hounds, Tom Bradley, Ron Brownstein, CVS pharmacies, Charlie Cannell, Jimmy Carter, Jack Casserly, the Center for Political Studies, Hillary Clinton, John Connolly, John Sherman Cooper, Mario Cuomo, Dallas-ites, George Deukmejian, Walt DeVries, Eastman Kodak, Tom Edsall, esprit d ’corps, Eureka, Merv Field, flanking moves, GW, Georgetown, Ed Goeas, the Harvard Kennedy School, Hee Haw, Stephan Helgesen, Dee Huddleston, Hubert Humphrey, ivory towers, Andrew Jackson, Thomas Jefferson, Lyndon Johnson, Robert Kennedy, Les Kish, Ed Koch, lone wolves, Rocky Marciano, Marielitos, Larry McCarthy, Gale McGee, George McGovern, mea culpa advertising, monocrats, Dick Morris, outsider revolutions, Charles Percy, Ross Perot, Kevin Phillips, pick-up truck license fees, political engineering, port-o-toilets, Sam Rayburn, the RGA, the RNC, Reagan Democrats, Nelson Rockefeller, Larry Sabato, Hugh Scott, Sargent Shriver, the Southern Strategy, Spencer Roberts, Mitt Romney, the Tea Party, technocrats, Bob Teeter, three-piece suits, ticket-splitting, tough dudes, John Tower, toxic waste sites, University of Arkansas, University of Michigan, Malcolm Wallop, Washington & Lee, Frank White, Dick Wirthlin…& more!

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