Bloomberg Talks Steven Englander Talks August Payrolls, Potential Fed Cut
Sep 8, 2025
Steven Englander, Global Head of G10 FX Research at Standard Chartered, shares insights on a weak dollar and forecasts a 50bps Federal Reserve cut in September. He emphasizes the challenges of interpreting labor market data and the impact of AI on productivity. The discussion delves into the reliability of government economic data and its influence on market perceptions. Englander also explores how upcoming economic releases could shape inflation metrics and their wider implications for the stock market.
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Fieldwork Shaped His Data Approach
- Steve Englander recounts being sent by his Yale advisor to study agricultural experiment stations in Brazil as a formative research experience.
- He uses that early fieldwork to illustrate his preference for granular, on-the-ground data work.
Think Through Market Logic First
- Englander emphasizes understanding market logic before disagreeing with consensus predictions.
- He assesses whether he knows something the market does not and gauges his confidence before taking a different view.
Payrolls Signal Fed Easing
- Englander reasons the Fed would cut because recent payrolls average only about 27,000 and may be overstated by birth-death adjustments.
- He concludes the Fed would likely move toward easing given softer underlying jobs data.