Larry Swedrow, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, shares his expertise on cutting through the clamor of market noise. He discusses how distractions from earnings reports, economic data, and news can derail investors. Swedrow emphasizes the importance of having a solid investment strategy and the pitfalls of market timing based on misinterpreted economic indicators. He also highlights the impacts of election years on investment decisions and urges investors to maintain focus to achieve long-term goals.
Investors should focus on the market's expectations rather than reacting impulsively to news, as price adjustments often occur before they respond.
Diversification is essential for managing risks associated with political events, allowing investors to remain resilient to fluctuating sentiments and biases.
Deep dives
The Impact of Noise on Long-Term Investing
Investors often become overwhelmed by the flood of information that affects stock prices, including earnings reports and economic data. This distraction can lead to poor decision-making, as many investors react to news without understanding its true impact on market fundamentals. For example, an impressive earnings report might lead investors to buy a stock, only to find it dropping in value because the results failed to meet heightened expectations. The key takeaway is that for long-term investors, such distractions are largely meaningless since the market has already adjusted to new information before individual investors can respond.
Managing Market Expectations
Understanding the market's reaction to news is crucial for investors, as prices reflect collective expectations rather than just the data itself. An illustrative case involved General Motors during the Great Recession, where a 20% drop in earnings surprisingly led to a rise in stock prices because the results were not as poor as anticipated. This illustrates the point that the relevance of news depends on its alignment with market expectations; hence, investors should focus not on the news itself but on how it compares to what was already anticipated. Consequently, having a long-term investment strategy that anticipates market fluctuations can help investors avoid emotional decision-making prompted by immediate news.
The Role of Diversification Amid Political and Economic Uncertainty
Political events such as elections can introduce unnecessary noise into investment decisions, and the market often factors in this uncertainty ahead of time. Diversification emerges as a key strategy to mitigate risks associated with potential political biases, as historical trends show investors may perform better based on their party preferences. For example, market returns can be influenced by whether an investor feels confident in a particular political leader's economic policies. Therefore, creating a well-rounded investment portfolio that withstands various political climates is advisable to avoid reactionary decisions based on fluctuating sentiments.
A constant stream of noise distracts investors: earnings reports, news releases, upgrades, downgrades, economic data, geopolitics. How should we best manage this firehose of distractions? Larry Swedrow, head of financial and economic research at Buckingham Strategic Wealth, speaks with Barry Ritholtz about managing through the noise. His firm manages or advises on over 70 billion dollars in client assets. Swedrow has co-written 20 books on investing.