Maggie Lake Talking Markets Episode 104: "Energy Is My Highest Conviction Call." With Vincent Deluard.
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Nov 13, 2025 
Vincent Deluard, Director of Global Macro Strategy at StoneX Group, shares insights on the potential end of the government shutdown and its impact on markets. He discusses the underlying strength of the U.S. economy, countering recession fears with data on tax collections. Energy emerges as his top investment focus, driven by unique market structures and demand from data centers. Vincent also highlights opportunities in Latin America and remaining risks in European fixed income, while emphasizing energy's role as a hedge against inflation.
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Markets Likely To Rally Into Year-End
- Vincent expects markets to climb into year-end driven by growth and positioning.
- He views the recent drop as a brief correction rather than a sustained sell-off.
Repeated Recession Calls Lack Conviction
- Vincent dismisses multiple repeated recession calls as narrative noise.
- He cites strong tax-withheld collections and gig income as evidence the labor market remains resilient.
Fed Likely To Re-Expand Its Balance Sheet
- Vincent sees liquidity tightening but not yet a systemic accident.
- He expects the Fed to pivot toward expanding its balance sheet if needed to ease liquidity strains.