7am ‘If I was on the Labor side of politics, I'd be worried’
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Mar 21, 2025 Kos Samaras, Director at RedBridge Group, dives into the real sentiments of Australian voters, revealing their concerns like the rising cost of living and the housing crisis. He emphasizes how politicians often misinterpret public opinion, leading to a disconnect with younger voters. Samaras also discusses the shifting political landscape as the election approaches, highlighting the influence of demographic changes. He stresses the need for genuine policy discussions over smear tactics, as voters are increasingly focused on substantive issues.
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Politicians' Response to Polls
- Politicians often overreact to poll numbers, swinging between arrogance and panic.
- Polling data is most valuable when analyzed over time to identify long-term trends.
Effective Polling Methods
- Use a mix of focus groups (9-12 people) and larger surveys (1200-2000 people) for representative polling.
- Online panels are more effective for reaching young people, as they are less likely to answer calls from unknown numbers.
The Value of Long-Term Polling
- Polling is a diagnostic tool, not a fortune cookie, and should be used to identify long-term trends.
- Governments often ignore long-term insights if they don't offer immediate political gains.