The Effective Statistician - in association with PSI cover image

The Effective Statistician - in association with PSI

P-value and confidence intervals - the good, the bad, and the ugly

Mar 10, 2025
In this insightful discussion, Kaspar Rufibach, an expert in statistical hypothesis testing, dives into the often-misunderstood world of p-values and confidence intervals. He explores the historical debates between Fisher’s and Neyman-Pearson’s approaches, shedding light on their practical implications. Kaspar shares real-world examples from clinical trials, emphasizing the risks of misinterpretation and the importance of clear communication. His tips for applying statistical concepts effectively can enhance collaboration with clinicians and strengthen the integrity of research.
32:31

Episode guests

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • Understanding the distinctions between Fisher’s and Neyman-Pearson’s hypothesis testing frameworks is essential for correctly interpreting p-values and evidence against null hypotheses.
  • Confidence intervals should be viewed as independent from hypothesis testing, highlighting the uncertainty of estimates rather than making binary decisions about significance.

Deep dives

Understanding P-values and Hypothesis Testing

The discussion highlights the ongoing debate around the use of p-values in statistical analysis, particularly in the context of hypothesis testing. There is a concern about statisticians overemphasizing small p-values, which can lead to misleading conclusions regarding the significance of findings. Instead of an outright ban on p-values, it is suggested that they should be used properly and understood within their historical context. Learning to differentiate between types of hypothesis testing, such as Fisher’s and Neyman-Pearson’s frameworks, is crucial for accurately interpreting evidence against null hypotheses.

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