Battle Lines Could war spark the next pandemic?
Oct 15, 2025
Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, brings his expertise in infectious diseases to the discussion. He explores how war zones can propagate diseases, referencing the historical connection between conflict and pandemics. Topics include the threat of 'Disease X' in current conflicts, the rise of antimicrobial resistance due to wartime conditions, and how disruptions in healthcare amplify risks. Amesh emphasizes the need for better preparedness, warning that political divides could leave us vulnerable to the next outbreak.
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Recent Conflicts Causing Disease Setbacks
- The Russia-Ukraine war has produced lapses in HIV and tuberculosis control and reports of hantavirus in soldiers.
- The DRC's prolonged conflict has repeatedly hampered Ebola control because violence blocks logistics.
Which Wars Raise Pandemic Odds
- Not every conflict creates a pandemic risk; zoonotic pandemic threats need biodiversity and animal-human contact.
- Adalja says places like the DRC with bushmeat exposure are more likely sources than every war zone.
Frame Health Threats As Strategic Risks
- Use urgent, security-focused language to mobilise resources and long-term planning for biological threats.
- Adalja recommends treating infectious-disease preparedness like a strategic defence to build resilience.
