In Moscow's Shadows In Moscow's Shadows 222: Are We Seeing A New Putin?
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Nov 2, 2025 The discussion delves into whether Putin has genuinely changed or simply intensified since 2018, coining the term 'Putin squared.' Key events like the Ukraine invasion and repression driven by fear shape his current actions. Historical perspectives from Russia’s Turkish Wars reveal how strategies have evolved, including the role of local populations in warfare. The parallels drawn emphasize that modern tactics echo imperial patterns, transforming the Ukraine conflict into a battle over identity and societal control.
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Putin's Earlier Strategic Profile
- Vladimir Putin remained essentially risk-averse and tactical rather than ideological in earlier years.
- His tools were theater, bribery, and flexible deniability rather than mass terror as a first resort.
Putin Squared: Intensified Continuity
- Since 2018 Putin shows continuity but intensified traits — more risk-taking in Ukraine yet driven by fear.
- He now leans on ideology and martyrdom narratives to replace the broken social contract of rising living standards.
Why Ukraine Triggered The Invasion
- Putin viewed Ukraine's westward drift as a dual threat: loss of influence and potential Western military presence.
- He miscalculated the 2022 invasion as low-risk and now pursues limited territorial gains to claim a perceived victory.
