Supply Shock Michael Kao on November Fed Meeting, Treasury Refunding, & Bond Market Bear Steepening
Nov 1, 2023
Former hedge fund manager and private investor Michael Kao joins the show to discuss the U.S. Treasury refunding announcement and the Fed's FOMC meeting. They explore the dollar yen cross, the market's reaction to Powell's press conference, and the four horsemen of economic resilience. They also critique Jay Powell's approach, analyze interest rates and bear steepening in the bond market, and discuss the issuance of US Treasury debt. The speakers propose thinking outside the box to address the bear steepening in the bond market and highlight the criticism of Janet Yellen's actions.
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Introduction
00:00 • 2min
The Impact of Powell's Press Conference and the Four Horsemen of Economic Resilience
01:36 • 7min
Comparing recent bear steepening to the 79-82 sequence and discussing the wage price spiral
08:35 • 6min
Analysis of Interest Rates, Treasury Funding, and Bear Steepening in the Bond Market
14:08 • 5min
Quarterly Refunding Amounts and Significance of Treasury Funding
18:47 • 5min
Addressing Bear Steepening in the Bond Market
23:18 • 14min
Criticism of Federal Reserve's Actions and Unresolved Inflationary Impulse
37:41 • 12min
Issuance of US Treasury Debt and the Transition to Longer Durations
49:19 • 20min