The Long View Cullen Roche: What Is Your Perfect Portfolio?
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Jan 6, 2026 
Cullen Roche, Founder and CIO of Discipline Funds and author of Your Perfect Portfolio, shares insights on crafting investment strategies. He discusses the evolving economic landscape, highlighting how tariffs impact markets and the potential for a K-shaped recovery. Cullen emphasizes the importance of bespoke portfolios that align with individual goals, advocating for temporal diversification to mitigate risks. He reframes risk in terms of personal financial goals and critiques stock-picking, suggesting a more tailored, systematic approach to investing.
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Tariff Panic Was Overstated
- Tariff talk was loud but mostly bluster; enacted tariffs were far smaller than feared.
- Cullen tracked roughly $200B enacted versus much larger hypothetical proposals and says the real economic hit was limited.
Technology Could Deepen A K-Shaped Trend
- Cullen sees a secular K-like divergence where gains concentrate among fewer entities over time.
- He warns AI could exacerbate inequality by concentrating wealth and displacing basic jobs.
Prepare For Patience With Concentrated Tech Bets
- If you're concentrated in top tech names, prepare to be more patient and accept greater sequence-of-returns risk.
- Indexing avoids picking winners, but high concentration raises the chance of long painful drawdowns that test resolve.
