Standard Deviations with Dr. Daniel Crosby
Akhil Patel - The Hidden Order of Markets Explained: Discover the Secrets Behind Market Movements
Episode guests
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- Understanding the 18-year economic cycle can inform investment decisions and involve buying during recovery and selling during the boom phase.
- COVID-19 has accelerated the 18-year economic cycle, leading to increased demand for real estate in secondary and tertiary cities, but caution is needed to avoid excessive speculation and overbuilding.
Deep dives
Understanding the 18-year economic cycle
The podcast episode discusses the 18-year economic cycle and its impact on markets and real estate. The guest, Akil Patel, explains that the cycle consists of four stages: recovery, mid-cycle, boom, and crisis. During the recovery stage, there is optimism as the economy emerges from a crisis, and governments provide stimulus to restore confidence. The mid-cycle phase brings some slowdown and consolidation, but optimism remains. The boom phase is marked by increasing speculation, new technologies, and a sense of euphoria. Finally, the crisis phase occurs when the banking system is impacted, credit tightens, businesses fail, and unemployment rises. Patel highlights the importance of understanding the cycle in making investment decisions, recommending buying during the recovery, being cautious during the mid-cycle, and selling during the boom. He also notes the impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market, with demand shifting from primary to secondary and tertiary cities, and the need to watch for excessive speculation in smaller markets at the end of the cycle.
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