Milk Road Macro Business Cycle Masterclass: Why The Market Is Exploding While The Economy Crashes w/ Henrik Zeberg
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Oct 9, 2025 Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock and author of 'The Monetary House of Cards,' explores the curious paradox of an erupting bull market amid economic turmoil. He delves into his cyclical macro framework, clarifying how leading and lagging indicators reveal market dynamics. Discussing consumer distress, he uses an iceberg metaphor and outlines the impending risks of a blow-off top. With insights on dollar trends and the limits of central bank interventions, Zeberg offers strategies for navigating these turbulent waters.
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Economy Moves Like A Supertanker
- The economy moves like a supertanker: slow to turn but with strong momentum once it does.
- Leading indicators rolled over in late 2024 and suggest a slowdown before the real economy shows it.
Bull Market Can Mask A Weak Economy
- Markets can rocket higher while the real economy is weakening because liquidity masks underlying damage.
- A parabolic bull run during a slowdown is a warning sign, not evidence things are healthy.
Three Indicator Layers Drive Cycle Timing
- Separate leading, coincident, and lagging indicators map to four phases of the cycle crossing a long-term growth trend.
- Leading indicators signaled a rollover in November last year, implying a slowdown is unfolding now.
